2015 JAVIER Top 250 prospects under 25 that just missed

A pursuit of mine has been to find how well minor league statistics translate to the major leagues. During this pursuit I created a comparison system called JAVIER that finds how well other players with similar minor league statistics have done in their careers. These numbers are based only on minor league statistics and nothing else. I am by no means a stats-only person and will not form a decision about a player until reading a scouting report (Baseball Prospectus has a trove of scouting information). However, I can’t add anything to the scouting community, so I do whatever I can and analyze the numbers instead. You can read all about the inner workings of JAVIER and download the data for yourself at Beyond the Boxscore.

Below are two lists of interesting names that didn’t quite make the top 250.

View the team 25 and under lists here.

Players not eligible

These players do not have enough playing time to make the top 250, but if they did, their score is high enough to be in it.

Name High Level 2014 Age Franchise Pos IP PA zBB zK zISO Speed Height Throws GS% Comps JAVIER JAVIER Category
Yasiel Puig MLB 23 Dodgers RF 262 0.29 -0.16 1.77 80 75 107 8.10 Elite
Anthony Rendon MLB 24 Nationals 3B 326 1.65 -0.05 1.26 60 73 284 4.38 Elite
Stephen Strasburg MLB 25 Nationals RHP 20.3 -0.6 1.64 76 R 100% 245 3.14 Good
Bobby Bradley Rk 18 Indians 1B 176 0.15 -0.52 3.72 61 73 103 1.93 Elite
Carlos Vidal FRk 18 Yankees CF 278 1.02 -1.12 0.9 65 71 121 1.72 Elite
Auston Bousfield A- 20 Padres CF 194 0.92 -0.4 1.46 77 71 117 1.69 Elite
Jermaine Palacios FRk 17 Twins 3B 225 1.3 -0.54 0.88 71 72 140 1.50 Elite
Forrest Wall Rk 18 Rockies 2B 188 1.57 -0.74 0.71 85 72 124 1.50 Elite
Luis Alexander Basabe Rk 17 Red Sox CF 307 1.19 -0.32 1.13 75 72 149 1.48 Elite
Leonardo Heras AA 24 Astros LF 423 1.54 -0.53 0.02 76 69 235 1.46 Good
Victor Fernandez FRk 19 Pirates CF 187 0.22 -0.43 1.15 68 71 150 1.46 Elite
Mason Davis A 21 Marlins 2B 279 0.46 -0.74 0.54 64 69 137 1.45 Elite
Kevin Krause A- 21 Pirates C 160 0.48 -0.33 2.1 70 74 156 1.42 Elite

Elite but not in the top 250

These players have elite numbers in the lower minors but have not advanced far enough yet.

Name High Level 2014 Age Franchise Pos IP PA zBB zK zISO Speed Height Throws GS% Comps JAVIER JAVIER Category
Julio Urias A+ 17 Dodgers LHP 142 -0.7 3.58 71 L 88% 109 1.36 Elite
Telmito Agustin FRk 17 Nationals LF 275 1.11 -0.45 2.13 83 70 248 1.35 Elite
Vicente Sanchez FRk 17 Astros CF 151 0.99 -0.67 1.8 64 71 173 1.35 Elite
Bradley Zimmer A 21 Indians CF 210 0.42 -0.6 0.78 67 76 168 1.33 Elite
Dwight Smith A+ 21 Blue Jays LF 1256 0.7 -0.73 0.52 63 71 122 1.33 Elite
Anthony Pereira FRk 17 Tigers SS 268 0.62 -0.28 1.18 76 72 181 1.30 Elite
Jesmuel Valentin A+ 20 Phillies 2B 1123 0.76 -0.88 0.19 66 69 148 1.29 Elite
Wendell Rijo A 18 Red Sox 2B 690 1.49 -0.35 0.9 62 71 184 1.25 Elite
Carlos Asuaje A+ 22 Red Sox 3B 763 0.71 -0.58 1.12 56 69 230 1.24 Elite
Lucas Giolito A 19 Nationals RHP 136.7 -0.61 1.71 78 R 100% 185 1.24 Elite
Carlos Correa A+ 19 Astros SS 1016 1.12 -0.32 0.96 59 76 238 1.23 Elite
Hunter Harvey A 19 Orioles RHP 113 -0.37 2.29 75 R 100% 172 1.22 Elite
Tyler Glasnow A+ 20 Pirates RHP 273.9 0.39 3.21 79 R 98% 105 1.20 Elite
Spencer Adams Rk 18 White Sox RHP 41.7 -2.08 2.95 75 R 90% 158 1.20 Elite
Kevin Padlo Rk 17 Rockies 3B 198 2.12 -0.63 2.51 55 74 147 1.17 Elite
Tito Polo Rk 19 Pirates RF 352 0.17 -0.07 1.03 70 71 177 1.15 Elite
Roberto Caro FRk 20 Cubs CF 542 0.69 -0.48 0.79 83 72 111 1.15 Elite
Willy Adames A 18 Rays SS 514 1.09 0.02 1.17 58 73 318 1.15 Elite
Eliezer Alvarez Rk 19 Cardinals 2B 358 0.37 -0.27 0.68 71 71 155 1.14 Elite
Kelvin Beltre FRk 17 Giants SS 93 2.37 -1.02 1.49 59 71 109 1.13 Elite
Gleyber Torres A- 17 Cubs SS 215 1.48 -0.96 0.45 67 73 159 1.12 Elite
Tyler Palmer Rk 21 Yankees SS 179 0.32 0.09 0.7 84 72 122 1.05 Elite
Jason Martin A- 18 Astros CF 496 1.27 -0.67 0.41 71 70 156 1.05 Elite
Zachary Shepherd Rk 18 Tigers 3B 201 0.69 -0.07 1.83 66 75 199 1.05 Elite
Franklin Barreto A- 18 Blue Jays SS 580 0.01 -0.09 1.64 75 69 160 1.03 Elite
Erick Mejia Rk 19 Mariners SS 228 0.44 -0.58 0.51 77 71 148 0.99 Elite
Cristhofer Martinez Rk 21 Padres 3B 515 0.51 -0.08 0.79 70 73 197 0.99 Elite
Raul Siri FRk 19 Pirates 2B 294 0.59 -0.85 1.76 58 69 130 0.99 Elite
Joan Mauricio Rk 17 Astros SS 270 1.29 0.21 1.09 65 71 345 0.96 Elite
Jose Figueroa Rk 21 Yankees CF 693 -0.2 0.7 66 70 162 0.94 Elite
Thomas Alvarez Rk 19 Nationals 2B 197 1.53 -0.01 0.86 69 73 274 0.93 Elite
Jack Flaherty Rk 18 Cardinals RHP 22.7 -1 2.22 76 R 75% 187 0.90 Elite
Ozhaino Albies Rk 17 Braves SS 239 1.11 -1.46 0.07 69 69 173 0.88 Elite
Jose Siri Rk 18 Reds CF 172 -0.37 -0.53 0.55 79 74 125 0.87 Elite
Luis Madero FRk 17 Diamondbacks RHP 66.7 -1 1.87 75 R 100% 287 0.87 Elite
Yu-Cheng Chang Rk 18 Indians SS 181 0.36 -1.2 2.38 63 73 109 0.85 Elite
Luiz Gohara A- 17 Mariners LHP 71.7 -0.12 2.27 75 L 100% 104 0.81 Elite
Ranger Suarez FRk 18 Phillies LHP 85.7 -2.47 1.5 72 L 82% 101 0.80 Elite
Cody Bellinger Rk 18 Dodgers 1B 428 0.79 -0.01 0.7 67 76 294 0.78 Elite
Thairo Estrada A- 18 Yankees SS 289 -0.05 -0.54 0.71 67 70 168 0.78 Elite
Rafael Devers Rk 17 Red Sox 3B 302 0.68 -0.72 1.66 51 72 233 0.77 Elite
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