2015 JAVIER Top 250 prospects under 25 that just missed

A pursuit of mine has been to find how well minor league statistics translate to the major leagues. During this pursuit I created a comparison system called JAVIER that finds how well other players with similar minor league statistics have done in their careers. These numbers are based only on minor league statistics and nothing else. I am by no means a stats-only person and will not form a decision about a player until reading a scouting report (Baseball Prospectus has a trove of scouting information). However, I can’t add anything to the scouting community, so I do whatever I can and analyze the numbers instead. You can read all about the inner workings of JAVIER and download the data for yourself at Beyond the Boxscore.

Below are two lists of interesting names that didn’t quite make the top 250.

View the team 25 and under lists here.

Players not eligible

These players do not have enough playing time to make the top 250, but if they did, their score is high enough to be in it.

Name	High Level	2014 Age	Franchise	Pos	IP	PA	zBB	zK	zISO	Speed	Height	Throws	GS%	Comps	JAVIER	JAVIER Category
Yasiel Puig	MLB	23	Dodgers	RF		262	0.29	-0.16	1.77	80	75			107	8.10	Elite
Anthony Rendon	MLB	24	Nationals	3B		326	1.65	-0.05	1.26	60	73			284	4.38	Elite
Stephen Strasburg	MLB	25	Nationals	RHP	20.3		-0.6	1.64			76	R	100%	245	3.14	Good
Bobby Bradley	Rk	18	Indians	1B		176	0.15	-0.52	3.72	61	73			103	1.93	Elite
Carlos Vidal	FRk	18	Yankees	CF		278	1.02	-1.12	0.9	65	71			121	1.72	Elite
Auston Bousfield	A-	20	Padres	CF		194	0.92	-0.4	1.46	77	71			117	1.69	Elite
Jermaine Palacios	FRk	17	Twins	3B		225	1.3	-0.54	0.88	71	72			140	1.50	Elite
Forrest Wall	Rk	18	Rockies	2B		188	1.57	-0.74	0.71	85	72			124	1.50	Elite
Luis Alexander Basabe	Rk	17	Red Sox	CF		307	1.19	-0.32	1.13	75	72			149	1.48	Elite
Leonardo Heras	AA	24	Astros	LF		423	1.54	-0.53	0.02	76	69			235	1.46	Good
Victor Fernandez	FRk	19	Pirates	CF		187	0.22	-0.43	1.15	68	71			150	1.46	Elite
Mason Davis	A	21	Marlins	2B		279	0.46	-0.74	0.54	64	69			137	1.45	Elite
Kevin Krause	A-	21	Pirates	C		160	0.48	-0.33	2.1	70	74			156	1.42	Elite

Elite but not in the top 250

These players have elite numbers in the lower minors but have not advanced far enough yet.

Name	High Level	2014 Age	Franchise	Pos	IP	PA	zBB	zK	zISO	Speed	Height	Throws	GS%	Comps	JAVIER	JAVIER Category
Julio Urias	A+	17	Dodgers	LHP	142		-0.7	3.58			71	L	88%	109	1.36	Elite
Telmito Agustin	FRk	17	Nationals	LF		275	1.11	-0.45	2.13	83	70			248	1.35	Elite
Vicente Sanchez	FRk	17	Astros	CF		151	0.99	-0.67	1.8	64	71			173	1.35	Elite
Bradley Zimmer	A	21	Indians	CF		210	0.42	-0.6	0.78	67	76			168	1.33	Elite
Dwight Smith	A+	21	Blue Jays	LF		1256	0.7	-0.73	0.52	63	71			122	1.33	Elite
Anthony Pereira	FRk	17	Tigers	SS		268	0.62	-0.28	1.18	76	72			181	1.30	Elite
Jesmuel Valentin	A+	20	Phillies	2B		1123	0.76	-0.88	0.19	66	69			148	1.29	Elite
Wendell Rijo	A	18	Red Sox	2B		690	1.49	-0.35	0.9	62	71			184	1.25	Elite
Carlos Asuaje	A+	22	Red Sox	3B		763	0.71	-0.58	1.12	56	69			230	1.24	Elite
Lucas Giolito	A	19	Nationals	RHP	136.7		-0.61	1.71			78	R	100%	185	1.24	Elite
Carlos Correa	A+	19	Astros	SS		1016	1.12	-0.32	0.96	59	76			238	1.23	Elite
Hunter Harvey	A	19	Orioles	RHP	113		-0.37	2.29			75	R	100%	172	1.22	Elite
Tyler Glasnow	A+	20	Pirates	RHP	273.9		0.39	3.21			79	R	98%	105	1.20	Elite
Spencer Adams	Rk	18	White Sox	RHP	41.7		-2.08	2.95			75	R	90%	158	1.20	Elite
Kevin Padlo	Rk	17	Rockies	3B		198	2.12	-0.63	2.51	55	74			147	1.17	Elite
Tito Polo	Rk	19	Pirates	RF		352	0.17	-0.07	1.03	70	71			177	1.15	Elite
Roberto Caro	FRk	20	Cubs	CF		542	0.69	-0.48	0.79	83	72			111	1.15	Elite
Willy Adames	A	18	Rays	SS		514	1.09	0.02	1.17	58	73			318	1.15	Elite
Eliezer Alvarez	Rk	19	Cardinals	2B		358	0.37	-0.27	0.68	71	71			155	1.14	Elite
Kelvin Beltre	FRk	17	Giants	SS		93	2.37	-1.02	1.49	59	71			109	1.13	Elite
Gleyber Torres	A-	17	Cubs	SS		215	1.48	-0.96	0.45	67	73			159	1.12	Elite
Tyler Palmer	Rk	21	Yankees	SS		179	0.32	0.09	0.7	84	72			122	1.05	Elite
Jason Martin	A-	18	Astros	CF		496	1.27	-0.67	0.41	71	70			156	1.05	Elite
Zachary Shepherd	Rk	18	Tigers	3B		201	0.69	-0.07	1.83	66	75			199	1.05	Elite
Franklin Barreto	A-	18	Blue Jays	SS		580	0.01	-0.09	1.64	75	69			160	1.03	Elite
Erick Mejia	Rk	19	Mariners	SS		228	0.44	-0.58	0.51	77	71			148	0.99	Elite
Cristhofer Martinez	Rk	21	Padres	3B		515	0.51	-0.08	0.79	70	73			197	0.99	Elite
Raul Siri	FRk	19	Pirates	2B		294	0.59	-0.85	1.76	58	69			130	0.99	Elite
Joan Mauricio	Rk	17	Astros	SS		270	1.29	0.21	1.09	65	71			345	0.96	Elite
Jose Figueroa	Rk	21	Yankees	CF		693		-0.2	0.7	66	70			162	0.94	Elite
Thomas Alvarez	Rk	19	Nationals	2B		197	1.53	-0.01	0.86	69	73			274	0.93	Elite
Jack Flaherty	Rk	18	Cardinals	RHP	22.7		-1	2.22			76	R	75%	187	0.90	Elite
Ozhaino Albies	Rk	17	Braves	SS		239	1.11	-1.46	0.07	69	69			173	0.88	Elite
Jose Siri	Rk	18	Reds	CF		172	-0.37	-0.53	0.55	79	74			125	0.87	Elite
Luis Madero	FRk	17	Diamondbacks	RHP	66.7		-1	1.87			75	R	100%	287	0.87	Elite
Yu-Cheng Chang	Rk	18	Indians	SS		181	0.36	-1.2	2.38	63	73			109	0.85	Elite
Luiz Gohara	A-	17	Mariners	LHP	71.7		-0.12	2.27			75	L	100%	104	0.81	Elite
Ranger Suarez	FRk	18	Phillies	LHP	85.7		-2.47	1.5			72	L	82%	101	0.80	Elite
Cody Bellinger	Rk	18	Dodgers	1B		428	0.79	-0.01	0.7	67	76			294	0.78	Elite
Thairo Estrada	A-	18	Yankees	SS		289	-0.05	-0.54	0.71	67	70			168	0.78	Elite
Rafael Devers	Rk	17	Red Sox	3B		302	0.68	-0.72	1.66	51	72			233	0.77	Elite

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