2015 JAVIER Tampa Bay Rays 25 and under Prospect List

A pursuit of mine has been to find how well minor league statistics translate to the major leagues. During this pursuit I created a comparison system called JAVIER that finds how well other players with similar minor league statistics have done in their careers. After recently adding pitching to a previously hitting-only system, I thought it would be fun to create a top-25 list of all players age 25 or younger for each team. These lists are based only on minor league statistics and nothing else. I am by no means a stats-only person and will not form a decision about a player until reading a scouting report (Baseball Prospectus has a trove of scouting information). However, I can’t add anything to the scouting community, so I do whatever I can and analyze the numbers instead. You can read all about the inner workings of JAVIER and download the data for yourself at Beyond the Boxscore. I will do my best to find all players currently in the franchise, but I may miss a few here and there.

In order to qualify for this list, pitchers must have at least 100 innings pitched and hitters 500 plate appearances in the minors.

View other teams 25 and under list here.

Top 25

Name High Level 2014 Age Pos IP PA JAVIER JAVIER Category
Nick Franklin MLB 23 SS 2202 4.00 Elite
Jake Odorizzi MLB 24 RHP 605 3.19 Good
Wil Myers MLB 23 RF 1964 3.15 Good
Matt Moore MLB 25 LHP 501.3 3.11 Good
Drew Smyly MLB 25 LHP 143.7 2.91 Good
Mikie Mahtook AAA 24 CF 1673 1.84 Good
Chris Archer MLB 25 RHP 768.9 1.70 Average
Mike Montgomery AAA 24 LHP 543.8 1.69 Good
Taylor Motter AA 24 RF 1326 1.44 Good
Kevin Kiermaier MLB 24 CF 1649 1.36 Average
Ryan Brett AA 22 2B 1627 1.35 Good
Matt Andriese AAA 24 RHP 484.7 1.30 Average
Enny Romero MLB 23 LHP 643.9 1.30 Average
Alex Colome MLB 25 RHP 696.3 1.29 Average
Willy Adames A 18 SS 514 1.15 Elite
Curtis Casali MLB 25 C 1136 1.08 Average
Johnny Field A+ 22 CF 793 0.94 Good
Richie Shaffer AA 23 3B 1148 0.84 Average
Jacob Faria A 20 RHP 239.7 0.79 Good
Blake Snell A+ 21 LHP 288.2 0.71 Good
Thomas Coyle A+ 23 2B 1377 0.70 Good
Tyler Goeddel A+ 21 3B 1355 0.67 Good
Patrick Leonard A+ 21 1B 1276 0.63 Good
Tyler Young A 21 3B 642 0.63 Good
Joey Rickard AA 23 CF 1019 0.61 Average

Missing prospects

Here are the JAVIER results for some names you might be looking for that did not make it onto the top-25 list. Some might not have enough minor league experience, others just might be prospects that have not produced in the minor leagues.

Name High Level 2014 Age Pos IP PA JAVIER JAVIER Category
Brent Honeywell Rk 19 RHP 33.7 0.68 Good
Hak-Ju Lee AAA 23 SS 2371 0.58 Bad
Grayson Garvin AA 24 LHP 148.7 0.55 Average
Cristian Toribio Rk 19 SS 579 0.54 Good
Taylor Guerrieri A 21 RHP 128.3 0.53 Average
Oscar Hernandez A 20 C 1078 0.33 Average
Ryne Stanek A+ 22 RHP 58.7 0.29 Average
Tim Beckham MLB 24 SS 2812 0.18 Bad
Andrew Toles A+ 22 CF 1009 0.13 Bad
Jeff Ames A+ 23 RHP 243.6 0.12 Bad
Josh Sale A+ 22 LF 897 0.06 Bad
Luke Maile AA 23 C 1052 0.05 Bad
Jose Alvarado Rk 19 LHP 66.3 0.04 Bad
Riley Unroe Rk 18 2B 478 0.03 Bad
Casey Gillaspie A- 21 1B 308 0.03 Bad
Thomas Milone A- 19 CF 426 0.02 Bad
Enderson Franco A- 21 RHP 217.4 0.01 Bad
Dylan Floro AA 23 RHP 346 0.01 Bad
David Rodriguez Rk 18 C 146 -0.04 Terrible
Andres Gonzalez Rk 20 RHP 95.3 -0.08 Terrible
Cameron Varga Rk 19 RHP 33.3 -0.08 Terrible
Justin O’Conner AA 22 C 1317 -0.10 Terrible
Jose Mujica Rk 18 RHP 35 -0.10 Terrible
Jose Castillo Rk 18 LHP 35.4 -0.11 Terrible
Nick Ciuffo Rk 19 C 381 -0.14 Terrible
Kean Wong A 19 2B 648 -0.18 Terrible
Jake Hager AA 21 SS 1697 -0.24 Terrible
C.J. Riefenhauser MLB 24 LHP 384.3 -0.28 Terrible
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