2015 JAVIER St. Louis Cardinals 25 and under Prospect List

A pursuit of mine has been to find how well minor league statistics translate to the major leagues. During this pursuit I created a comparison system called JAVIER that finds how well other players with similar minor league statistics have done in their careers. After recently adding pitching to a previously hitting-only system, I thought it would be fun to create a top-25 list of all players age 25 or younger for each team. These lists are based only on minor league statistics and nothing else. I am by no means a stats-only person and will not form a decision about a player until reading a scouting report (Baseball Prospectus has a trove of scouting information). However, I can’t add anything to the scouting community, so I do whatever I can and analyze the numbers instead. You can read all about the inner workings of JAVIER and download the data for yourself at Beyond the Boxscore. I will do my best to find all players currently in the franchise, but I may miss a few here and there.

In order to qualify for this list, pitchers must have at least 100 innings pitched and hitters 500 plate appearances in the minors.

View other teams 25 and under list here.

Top 25

Name High Level 2014 Age Pos IP PA JAVIER JAVIER Category
Shelby Miller MLB 23 RHP 383.7 4.61 Elite
Carlos Martinez MLB 22 RHP 279 3.54 Good
Kolten Wong MLB 23 2B 1344 3.09 Good
Trevor Rosenthal MLB 24 RHP 229.3 2.95 Good
Marco Gonzales MLB 22 LHP 145.5 2.70 Good
Boone Whiting AAA 24 RHP 441.8 1.92 Good
Tim Cooney AAA 23 LHP 368 1.90 Good
Randal Grichuk MLB 22 LF 2327 1.32 Average
Rafael Ortega MLB 23 LF 1793 1.31 Average
John Gast MLB 25 LHP 459.9 1.20 Average
Mike Mayers AAA 22 RHP 190.3 1.15 Average
Jonathan Rodriguez AA 24 1B 2205 1.03 Good
Rob Kaminsky A 19 LHP 122.7 0.77 Good
Jacob Wilson AA 23 3B 1008 0.75 Average
Alex Reyes A 19 RHP 167.6 0.71 Good
Tyler Rahmatulla AA 24 3B 765 0.65 Average
Stephen Piscotty AAA 23 RF 1264 0.63 Average
Samuel Tuivailala MLB 21 RHP 108.3 0.58 Bad
Seth Maness MLB 25 RHP 247.7 0.57 Bad
Patrick Wisdom AA 22 3B 1302 0.57 Average
Samuel Gaviglio AA 24 RHP 321.4 0.56 Average
Kurt Heyer AAA 23 RHP 282.3 0.48 Bad
Joe Cuda A+ 24 RHP 276.1 0.47 Average
Nick Petree AA 23 RHP 184.7 0.47 Average
Rowan Wick A 21 RF 625 0.45 Average

Missing prospects

Here are the JAVIER results for some names you might be looking for that did not make it onto the top-25 list. Some might not have enough minor league experience, others just might be prospects that have not produced in the minor leagues.

Name High Level 2014 Age Pos IP PA JAVIER JAVIER Category
Jack Flaherty Rk 18 RHP 22.7 0.90 Elite
Luke Weaver A+ 20 RHP 9.3 0.84 Good
Magneuris Sierra Rk 18 CF 223 0.71 Good
Samuel Tuivailala MLB 21 RHP 108.3 0.58 Bad
Malik Collymore Rk 19 2B 261 0.43 Good
Edmundo Sosa A- 18 SS 238 0.39 Average
Fernando Baez FRk 22 C 164 0.39 Average
Aledmys Diaz AA 23 SS 179 0.36 Bad
Tyrell Jenkins A+ 21 RHP 274.6 0.35 Average
Greg Garcia MLB 24 2B 2068 0.28 Bad
Jimmy Reed AA 23 LHP 191 0.26 Bad
Cory Jones A+ 22 RHP 101.6 0.23 Average
Carson Kelly A 19 C 1107 0.20 Bad
Vaughn Bryan A 21 LF 619 0.17 Bad
Anthony Garcia A+ 22 LF 1646 0.16 Bad
Steven Farinaro A- 18 RHP 77.3 0.12 Bad
Oscar Mercado Rk 19 SS 460 0.09 Bad
Zachary Petrick AAA 24 RHP 292.7 0.08 Bad
Ian McKinney A- 19 LHP 77.7 0.07 Bad
Austin Gomber A- 20 LHP 47 0.06 Bad
Dixon Llorens AA 21 RHP 131.3 0.02 Bad
Mason Katz A+ 23 2B 699 -0.07 Terrible
Fernando Baez A- 22 RHP 118 -0.12 Terrible
Chris Rivera A- 19 2B 400 -0.12 Terrible
Anthony Garcia Rk 22 RHP 0.7 -0.13 Terrible
Juan Herrera A+ 21 SS 1125 -0.14 Terrible
Kenneth Peoples-Walls A 20 LF 885 -0.14 Terrible
Seth Blair AAA 25 RHP 310.5 -0.16 Terrible
Jordan Swagerty AA 24 RHP 104.3 -0.18 Terrible
Ronald Castillo A+ 22 RF 907 -0.20 Terrible
Charlie Tilson AA 21 CF 1027 -0.21 Terrible
Steve Bean A 20 C 591 -0.22 Terrible
Breyvic Valera AA 22 2B 1646 -0.23 Terrible
Ryan Sherriff AAA 24 LHP 321.1 -0.35 Terrible
Audry Perez MLB 25 C 1738 -0.41 Terrible
Keith Butler MLB 25 RHP 222.7 -0.48 Terrible
Lee Stoppelman AAA 24 LHP 149.6 -0.48 Terrible
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