2015 JAVIER San Diego Padres 25 and under Prospect List

A pursuit of mine has been to find how well minor league statistics translate to the major leagues. During this pursuit I created a comparison system called JAVIER that finds how well other players with similar minor league statistics have done in their careers. After recently adding pitching to a previously hitting-only system, I thought it would be fun to create a top-25 list of all players age 25 or younger for each team. These lists are based only on minor league statistics and nothing else. I am by no means a stats-only person and will not form a decision about a player until reading a scouting report (Baseball Prospectus has a trove of scouting information). However, I can’t add anything to the scouting community, so I do whatever I can and analyze the numbers instead. You can read all about the inner workings of JAVIER and download the data for yourself at Beyond the Boxscore. I will do my best to find all players currently in the franchise, but I may miss a few here and there.

In order to qualify for this list, pitchers must have at least 100 innings pitched and hitters 500 plate appearances in the minors.

View other teams 25 and under list here.

Top 25

Name High Level 2014 Age Pos IP PA JAVIER JAVIER Category
Burch Smith MLB 24 RHP 228.3 3.51 Good
Jace Peterson MLB 24 SS 1732 3.49 Good
Robbie Erlin MLB 23 LHP 449 3.27 Good
Matt Wisler AAA 21 RHP 396.7 3.17 Elite
Casey Kelly MLB 24 RHP 370 3.14 Good
Joe Wieland MLB 24 RHP 476.8 2.87 Good
Jesse Hahn MLB 24 RHP 163.3 2.47 Good
Rymer Liriano MLB 23 LF 2550 1.97 Average
Alexi Amarista MLB 25 SS 2204 1.91 Average
Abraham Almonte MLB 25 CF 3297 1.57 Average
Juan Oramas AAA 24 LHP 549.1 1.43 Average
Keyvius Sampson AAA 23 RHP 524.3 1.28 Average
Jonathan Galvez AAA 23 LF 2652 1.22 Average
Jedd Gyorko MLB 25 2B 1538 1.19 Average
Taylor Lindsey AAA 22 2B 2176 1.13 Average
Cristhofer Martinez Rk 21 3B 515 0.99 Elite
Alex Dickerson AA 24 RF 1379 0.69 Average
Joe Ross AA 21 RHP 299.7 0.63 Average
Zach Eflin A+ 20 RHP 253.7 0.47 Average
Max Fried A 20 LHP 147.1 0.45 Average
Jake Bauers A 18 1B 655 0.45 Average
Rafael De Paula A+ 23 RHP 306.7 0.43 Average
Mallex Smith A+ 21 CF 1217 0.43 Average
Alberth Martinez AAA 23 CF 1615 0.40 Bad
Adrian De Horta A 19 RHP 108.3 0.33 Average

Missing prospects

Here are the JAVIER results for some names you might be looking for that did not make it onto the top-25 list. Some might not have enough minor league experience, others just might be prospects that have not produced in the minor leagues.

Name High Level 2014 Age Pos IP PA JAVIER JAVIER Category
Carlos Belen Rk 18 3B 176 0.51 Good
Franchy Cordero A 19 SS 780 0.28 Average
Trea Turner A 21 SS 321 0.25 Average
Jordan Paroubeck Rk 19 LF 158 0.18 Average
Reymond Fuentes MLB 23 LF 2529 0.18 Bad
Michael Gettys Rk 18 CF 233 0.17 Average
Walker Weickel A 20 RHP 238.4 0.05 Bad
Hunter Renfroe AA 22 RF 750 0.04 Bad
Jeremy Baltz A+ 23 LF 1207 0.04 Bad
Franmil Reyes A 18 RF 1061 0.02 Bad
Jose Urena A 19 RF 735 0.01 Bad
Adys Portillo AA 22 RHP 390.7 -0.03 Terrible
Corey Adamson A+ 22 RF 1694 -0.04 Terrible
Travis Jankowski AA 23 CF 1010 -0.09 Terrible
Gabriel Quintana A+ 21 3B 1455 -0.09 Terrible
Corey Adamson A- 22 RHP 3.3 -0.11 Terrible
Kevin Quackenbush MLB 25 RHP 179 -0.12 Terrible
Jose Rondon A+ 20 SS 1230 -0.13 Terrible
Austin Hedges AA 21 C 1205 -0.14 Terrible
Dustin Peterson A 19 3B 736 -0.15 Terrible
Josh VanMeter A 19 SS 644 -0.16 Terrible
Cory Spangenberg MLB 23 2B 1665 -0.16 Terrible
Tayron Guerrero A+ 23 RHP 149.1 -0.17 Terrible
Andrew Lockett A 20 RHP 31.3 -0.18 Terrible
John Barbato AA 21 RHP 249.6 -0.20 Terrible
Ruben Mejia AAA 22 RHP 204 -0.36 Terrible
Yeison Asencio AAA 24 RF 1734 -0.39 Terrible
R.J. Alvarez MLB 23 RHP 119.3 -0.40 Terrible
Donn Roach MLB 24 RHP 449.4 -0.43 Terrible
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