2015 JAVIER Cincinnati Reds 25 and under Prospect List

A pursuit of mine has been to find how well minor league statistics translate to the major leagues. During this pursuit I created a comparison system called JAVIER that finds how well other players with similar minor league statistics have done in their careers. After recently adding pitching to a previously hitting-only system, I thought it would be fun to create a top-25 list of all players age 25 or younger for each team. These lists are based only on minor league statistics and nothing else. I am by no means a stats-only person and will not form a decision about a player until reading a scouting report (Baseball Prospectus has a trove of scouting information). However, I can’t add anything to the scouting community, so I do whatever I can and analyze the numbers instead. You can read all about the inner workings of JAVIER and download the data for yourself at Beyond the Boxscore. I will do my best to find all players currently in the franchise, but I may miss a few here and there.

In order to qualify for this list, pitchers must have at least 100 innings pitched and hitters 500 plate appearances in the minors.

View other teams 25 and under list here.

Top 25

Name High Level 2014 Age Pos IP PA JAVIER JAVIER Category
Tony Cingrani MLB 24 LHP 228.6 4.30 Elite
David Holmberg MLB 22 LHP 695.2 2.50 Good
Jon Moscot AAA 22 RHP 340.6 1.75 Good
Billy Hamilton MLB 23 CF 2258 1.51 Average
Robert Stephenson AA 21 RHP 316.1 1.43 Good
Ben Lively AA 22 RHP 192 1.40 Good
Jesse Winker AA 20 LF 1102 1.33 Good
John Tolisano AA 25 LF 2794 1.06 Good
Phillip Ervin A 21 CF 762 0.97 Good
Seth Mejias-Brean AA 23 3B 1338 0.88 Average
Donald Lutz MLB 25 LF 1953 0.75 Average
Daniel Corcino MLB 23 RHP 693.7 0.75 Average
Michael O’Brien AAA 24 RHP 634.6 0.63 Average
Yorman Rodriguez MLB 21 CF 2222 0.60 Bad
Daniel Renken AA 24 RHP 448.4 0.58 Average
Ismael Guillon A+ 22 LHP 440.6 0.54 Average
Kyle Waldrop AA 22 RF 1872 0.51 Average
Brett Marshall MLB 24 RHP 684.9 0.44 Bad
Henry Rodriguez MLB 24 2B 2718 0.42 Bad
Kevin W Garcia Rk 21 LF 544 0.38 Average
Nick Travieso A 20 RHP 245.4 0.37 Average
Juan Perez AA 22 2B 1806 0.34 Bad
Salvatore Romano A 20 RHP 333.3 0.30 Average
Andrew Cisco A+ 22 RHP 332.3 0.27 Average
Lucas Moran A 22 RHP 188.3 0.25 Average

Missing prospects

Here are the JAVIER results for some names you might be looking for that did not make it onto the top-25 list. Some might not have enough minor league experience, others just might be prospects that have not produced in the minor leagues.

Name High Level 2014 Age Pos IP PA JAVIER JAVIER Category
Taylor Sparks Rk 21 3B 240 0.59 Good
Wyatt Strahan Rk 21 RHP 42.3 0.33 Average
Juan Silva A+ 23 RF 1728 0.23 Average
Ryan LaMarre AAA 25 CF 1960 0.20 Bad
Tyler Mahle Rk 19 RHP 111 0.19 Average
Mark Armstrong Rk 19 RHP 64.7 0.18 Average
Jeremy Kivel Rk 20 RHP 91.4 0.17 Average
Reydel Medina Rk 21 RF 188 0.16 Average
Junior Arias A+ 22 CF 1484 0.15 Bad
Gavin LaValley Rk 19 3B 241 0.11 Bad
Aristides Aquino Rk 20 RF 1093 0.10 Bad
Amir Garrett A 22 LHP 211 0.07 Bad
Alex Blandino A 21 SS 283 0.05 Bad
Daniel Wright A+ 23 RHP 195.1 0.01 Bad
Gabriel Rosa A 20 CF 577 -0.06 Terrible
Junior Arias Rk 20 RHP 76.7 -0.06 Terrible
Jose Ortiz A 20 C 379 -0.07 Terrible
Jackson Stephens A 20 RHP 153.3 -0.07 Terrible
Cory Thompson Rk 19 SS 490 -0.11 Terrible
Kevin Franklin Rk 19 1B 445 -0.12 Terrible
Zachary Weiss A 22 RHP 92 -0.14 Terrible
Michael Lorenzen AA 22 RHP 141.7 -0.15 Terrible
Sean Buckley A+ 24 1B 1104 -0.16 Terrible
Nick Howard A 21 RHP 33.7 -0.17 Terrible
Ryan Wright AA 24 2B 1674 -0.19 Terrible
Tanner Rahier A 20 3B 1124 -0.19 Terrible
Neftali Soto MLB 25 3B 3315 -0.21 Terrible
Carlton Daal A 20 SS 446 -0.23 Terrible
Rey Navarro AAA 24 2B 3603 -0.23 Terrible
Chad Rogers AAA 24 RHP 405.3 -0.26 Terrible
Carlos Contreras MLB 23 RHP 249 -0.43 Terrible
Tucker Barnhart MLB 23 C 1618 -0.66 Terrible
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