2015 JAVIER Baltimore Orioles 25 and under Prospect List

A pursuit of mine has been to find how well minor league statistics translate to the major leagues. During this pursuit I created a comparison system called JAVIER that finds how well other players with similar minor league statistics have done in their careers. After recently adding pitching to a previously hitting-only system, I thought it would be fun to create a top-25 list of all players age 25 or younger for each team. These lists are based only on minor league statistics and nothing else. I am by no means a stats-only person and will not form a decision about a player until reading a scouting report (Baseball Prospectus has a trove of scouting information). However, I can’t add anything to the scouting community, so I do whatever I can and analyze the numbers instead. You can read all about the inner workings of JAVIER and download the data for yourself at Beyond the Boxscore. I will do my best to find all players currently in the franchise, but I may miss a few here and there.

In order to qualify for this list, pitchers must have at least 100 innings pitched and hitters 500 plate appearances in the minors.

View other teams 25 and under list here.

Top 25

Name High Level 2014 Age Pos IP PA JAVIER JAVIER Category
Dylan Bundy MLB 21 RHP 103.7 5.34 Elite
Manny Machado MLB 21 3B 928 4.13 Elite
Kevin Gausman MLB 23 RHP 142.3 3.54 Good
Steve Lombardozzi MLB 25 2B 2001 1.97 Average
Tyler Wilson AAA 24 RHP 494.3 1.92 Good
Mike Wright AAA 24 RHP 447.4 1.71 Good
Michael Yastrzemski AA 23 RF 831 1.55 Good
T.J. McFarland MLB 25 LHP 337.3 1.30 Average
Hunter Harvey A 19 RHP 113 1.22 Elite
Zach Davies AA 21 RHP 373 0.90 Average
Jimmy Paredes MLB 25 3B 2209 0.87 Average
Christian Walker MLB 23 1B 1131 0.86 Average
David Freitas AAA 25 C 1746 0.78 Average
Jonathan Schoop MLB 22 2B 1698 0.78 Average
Trent Mummey A+ 25 RF 827 0.73 Good
Dariel Alvarez AAA 25 RF 647 0.71 Average
Michael Burgess AA 25 LF 3467 0.66 Average
Mitch Horacek A+ 22 LHP 208 0.65 Good
Branden Kline AA 22 RHP 190.7 0.63 Average
Steven Brault A+ 22 LHP 189.3 0.46 Average
Tim Berry AA 23 LHP 550.7 0.45 Average
Ronarsy Ledesma A 21 3B 802 0.40 Average
Robert Bundy AA 24 RHP 397.1 0.32 Bad
Parker Bridwell A+ 22 RHP 479.8 0.31 Average
Alexander Mercedes A- 22 CF 730 0.24 Average

Missing prospects

Here are the JAVIER results for some names you might be looking for that did not make it onto the top-25 list. Some might not have enough minor league experience, others just might be prospects that have not produced in the minor leagues.

Name High Level 2014 Age Pos IP PA JAVIER JAVIER Category
Brian Gonzalez A- 18 LHP 33.7 0.58 Good
Stephen Tarpley A- 21 LHP 87.3 0.36 Average
Jomar Reyes Rk 17 3B 207 0.21 Average
Travis Seabrooke Rk 18 LHP 8 0.05 Bad
Conor Bierfeldt A 23 DH 704 0.02 Bad
Patrick Connaughton A- 21 RHP 14.7 -0.09 Terrible
Trey Mancini A+ 22 1B 871 -0.13 Terrible
Chance Sisco A 19 C 602 -0.14 Terrible
Lex Rutledge A+ 23 LHP 137 -0.17 Terrible
Drew Dosch A 22 3B 558 -0.19 Terrible
Josh Hart A 19 CF 528 -0.20 Terrible
Adrian Marin A+ 20 SS 1098 -0.21 Terrible
Michael Almanzar AAA 23 3B 2940 -0.29 Terrible
Michael Ohlman AA 23 C 1862 -0.31 Terrible

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