The Detroit Tigers agreed to sign Prince Fielder to a 9 year, 214 million dollar contract today. According to Seamheads, Miller Park has a home run park factor for LHB of 121. Comerica’s is 98. From katron, Prince Fielder’s hits superimposed onto Comerica Park:
I have decided (for whatever reason) to keep track of each team’s top prospect ranks from various sites. So far, this list includes Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, Beyond the Box Score, Perfect Game, Minor League Ball, Bullpen Banter, MLB Dirt, Top Prospect Alert, MLB Prospect Portal, Baseball-Intellect, Baseball Instinct, Baseball Prospect Nation, MLB and Outside Corner. If you know of another site that is doing team prospect ranks, send me a link to the posts. Also, some of these sites have still yet to complete the series, so the links are obviously not available for them yet.
I uploaded a Google Doc for this purpose, so feel free to click away. Also, if there is a new post for one of the sites, let me know and I will add it into the appropriate place. You can contact me through the comments section below or on Twitter @stealofhome.
At some point in the next few days, the name(s) of the people elected to Major League Baseball’s Hall of Fame will be announced. There has been much banter about who should or shouldn’t be elected as always. Honestly, I haven’t looked into it deeply enough to form my own opinion about some of the borderline players. However, there is one player that I have yet to see a vote for who I believe has earned consideration, namely, Tony Womack. Here we go.
I know what you’re saying: “Tony Womack was at best just above replacement level and should probably not even be on the ballot.” Maybe you’re right. But let’s take a closer look at his career, shall we?
Womack led the National League in stolen bases three consecutive years. You know who else did that? Lou Brock, Willie Mays, Kiki Cuyler and Max Carey among others. That’s some good company. His 363 career stolen bases ranks above Hughie Jennings, Buck Ewing and Rod Carew – three more hall of famers. He is one of only 19 players to exceed the 60 stolen base mark more than once in the expansion era. Simply put, Womack was one of the most prolific base-stealers of all time.
Baseball Prospectus says: “…Womack is a track star…”
Womack was also versatile. He played three key defensive positions for over 100 games each and two more for 40 games each. Though he never won a Gold Glove, he was certainly more than adequate each place he played. Not only was he versatile on the field, he was also versatile in the batting order, accumulating at least 100 plate appearances in five different lineup spots. A majority of his time was spent at the most important spot — leading off.
Baseball Prospectus says: “As a child, I […] believed that Tony Womack was a great leadoff man…”
The incredible Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out his ZiPS projections for the 2012 baseball season team-by-team at the Baseball Think Factory (most recently the Orioles). These projections not only include well-established veteran players, but also minor league players who have little to no track record in the major leagues, which is where I will focus my attention.
Szymborski was kind enough to send me a link to the 2011 projections. I went to Fangraphs and downloaded a table of all of the 2011 rookies (there may be some mistakes, such as Alexi Ogando who is not actually a rookie). Then, I found OPS+ statistics from baseball-reference (not available at Fangraphs). Finally, I compared the ZiPS projections to the actual totals from those rookies.
There are 17 counting stats, four rate stats and one league-average stat projected by ZiPS. I was able to find the actual production for each of these except RC/27, which I have not compared yet and will not include in this analysis. Fangraphs has a wRC stat, but it is a counting stat (total number of runs) instead of a rate stat (runs created per 27 outs). That still leaves 21 stats to compare, so I consolidated a few of them. I compared all counting stats besides games and at-bats (playing time stats) together. I took the absolute difference between how many runs, hits, doubles, triples, etc. ZiPS projected and the player actually accumulated and added them all together. This gives a total “counting stat” difference between projection and actual. For playing time stats I only looked at at-bats, as I figured it would give me the same basic information as games. For batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS+, I only looked at players with more than 100 at-bats (no projected plate appearances).
The dark line on each of the graphs represents x=y (if ZiPS could perfectly project every statistic), not a trend line.
This category covers at-bats.