2012 Free Agent Rankings

I’ve been playing around a little bit with the 2012 free agents. First, I took each player’s past three years of Fangraphs WAR, Baseball-Reference WAR and Baseball Prospectus WARP and averaged them. Then I based a  WAR aging curve off the one from Baseball Analysts to estimate how many wins each player will be worth over the length of the contract. For players over the age of 39, I assumed a linear decline.

In order to rank the players, I assumed each player would be given a four year contract and then sorted by total projected WAR over the length of it.

I did change the average WAR for a few pitchers:

Joe Nathan: I took the average of his 2007-2009 WAR and multiplied by 0.9.

Chris Capuano: Average of 2007, 2010-2011 multiplied by 0.9.

Jeff Francis: Average of 2008, 2010-2011.

Chien-Ming Wang:Average of 2007, 2009 and 2011.

Joel Zumaya:Average of 2008-2010 multiplied by 0.9.

Erik Bedard: Average of 2008-2009 and 2011.

Bartolo Colon: Average of 2008-2009 and 2011.

C.J. Wilson: Average of 2010-2011.

Jose Reyes: Average of 2008, 2010-2011.

Aramis Ramirez: Average of 2008, 2010-2011

Endy Chavez: Average of 2008-2009 and 2011

Results

Rank Name Contract WAR
1 Albert Pujols 27.5
2 Jose Reyes 17.0
3 Prince Fielder 16.7
4 C.J. Wilson 14.8
5 Mark Buehrle 9.7
6 Edwin Jackson 9.6
7 Roy Oswalt 9.2
8 David DeJesus 7.1
9 Carlos Beltran 7.0
10 Rafael Furcal 6.9
11 Josh Willingham 6.7
12 Casey Blake 6.5
13 Javier Vazquez 6.4
14 Aaron Hill 6.3
15 Johnny Damon 6.1
16 Coco Crisp 5.6
17 Jimmy Rollins 5.6
18 Jonathan Papelbon 5.4
19 Paul Maholm 5.4
20 Aramis Ramirez 5.1
21 J.D. Drew 4.7
22 Hiroki Kuroda 4.6
23 Derrek Lee 4.3
24 Joe Nathan 4.1
25 Michael Cuddyer 3.9
26 Jason Kubel 3.8
27 Carlos Pena 3.7
28 Jamey Carroll 3.6
29 Clint Barmes 3.3
30 Ryan Madson 2.9
31 Jim Thome 2.9
32 Erik Bedard 2.7
33 Jeff Francis 2.6
34 Joel Pineiro 2.6
35 Livan Hernandez 2.6
36 Cody Ross 2.5
37 Ramon Santiago 2.4
38 Heath Bell 2.3
39 Kosuke Fukudome 2.3
40 Freddy Garcia 2.1
41 Luke Scott 2.0
42 Hideki Matsui 1.8
43 Jon Garland 1.7
44 Mark Ellis 1.7
45 Joe Saunders 1.7
46 Jonathan Broxton 1.5
47 Laynce Nix 1.5
48 Alex Gonzalez 1.2
49 Aaron Cook 1.1
50 Chris Capuano 1.1
51 Zach Duke 1.0
52 Jack Cust 1.0
53 Russell Branyan 1.0
54 Felipe Lopez 0.9
55 Ryan Ludwick 0.9
56 Ramon Hernandez 0.9
57 Juan Pierre 0.8
58 Grady Sizemore 0.7
59 Darren Oliver 0.6
60 Juan Rivera 0.6
61 Nate McLouth 0.6
62 Wilson Betemit 0.6
63 Jose Mijares 0.5
64 Jorge Posada 0.5
65 Nick Punto 0.5
66 David Aardsma 0.4
67 Frank Francisco 0.4
68 Chien-Ming Wang 0.4
69 Ronny Paulino 0.3
70 Casey Kotchman 0.3
71 Kevin Millwood 0.2
72 Miguel Tejada 0.2
73 Hong-Chih Kuo 0.2
74 Kyle Davies 0.2
75 Ryan Doumit 0.1
76 Jonny Gomes 0.0
77 Ross Ohlendorf 0.0
78 Lyle Overbay -0.1
79 Kelly Shoppach -0.1
80 Ronny Cedeno -0.1
81 Jeff Keppinger -0.1
82 Jason Marquis -0.2
83 Bruce Chen -0.2
84 Ryan Theriot -0.3
85 Rich Harden -0.4
86 Jack Wilson -0.5
87 Rick Ankiel -0.5
88 Aaron Harang -0.5
89 Joel Zumaya -0.5
90 Andrew Brackman -0.6
91 Scott Hairston -0.7
92 Raul Ibanez -0.7
93 Andruw Jones -0.7
94 Francisco Cordero -0.8
95 Chris Young -0.8
96 Jon Rauch -0.9
97 Michael Wuertz -0.9
98 Rod Barajas -1.0
99 Chris Snyder -1.0
100 Matt Capps -1.0
101 Brad Penny -1.0
102 Endy Chavez -1.0
103 Bartolo Colon -1.0
104 Clay Hensley -1.1
105 Jerry Hairston -1.1
106 Todd Coffey -1.1
107 Adam Kennedy -1.2
108 Gerald Laird -1.2
109 Vladimir Guerrero -1.4
110 Craig Counsell -1.4
111 Mike Gonzalez -1.4
112 Brooks Conrad -1.5
113 Austin Kearns -1.5
114 Pat Burrell -1.6
115 Eric Hinske -1.6
116 Peter Moylan -1.6
117 Takashi Saito -1.8
118 Yuniesky Betancourt -1.8
119 Tim Wakefield -1.9
120 Brad Hawpe -2.0
121 Henry Blanco -2.1
122 Micah Owings -2.3
123 Javier Lopez -2.3
124 Octavio Dotel -2.3
125 Reed Johnson -2.5
126 Jeremy Accardo -2.5
127 Dan Wheeler -2.5
128 Arthur Rhodes -2.5
129 Jorge Cantu -2.6
130 Chris Ray -2.6
131 George Sherrill -2.6
132 Chad Gaudin -2.7
133 Emmanuel Burriss -2.7
134 Ivan Rodriguez -2.8
135 LaTroy Hawkins -2.8
136 John McDonald -2.9
137 Dontrelle Willis -2.9
138 Ramon Castro -2.9
139 Kerry Wood -2.9
140 Magglio Ordonez -3.0
141 Eli Whiteside -3.0
142 Doug Slaten -3.1
143 Shawn Camp -3.1
144 Jose Molina -3.2
145 Blaine Boyer -3.3
146 Sergio Mitre -3.3
147 Milton Bradley -3.3
148 Dioner Navarro -3.3
149 Conor Jackson -3.4
150 Jason Varitek -3.4
151 Mark DeRosa -3.4
152 Ryan Franklin -3.4
153 Chris Gimenez -3.4
154 Edgar Renteria -3.4
155 Willie Harris -3.5
156 Lance Cormier -3.5
157 Juan Cruz -3.6
158 Ross Gload -3.7
159 Chad Qualls -3.7
160 Carlos Guillen -4.0
161 Willie Bloomquist -4.1
162 Marcus Thames -4.2
163 Chad Durbin -4.2
164 Orlando Cabrera -4.3
165 Fernando Rodney -4.4
166 Omar Vizquel -4.4
167 Matt Stairs -4.4
168 Guillermo Mota -4.4
169 Koyie Hill -4.5
170 Scott Linebrink -4.6
171 Dennys Reyes -4.7
172 Greg Dobbs -4.7
173 Eric Chavez -4.7
174 Matt Treanor -4.8
175 Miguel Batista -4.8
176 J.C. Romero -5.0
177 Brian Schneider -5.1
178 Danys Baez -5.2
179 Xavier Nady -5.2
180 Adam Everett -5.2
181 Brad Lidge -5.3
182 Ryan Spilborghs -5.3
183 Jamey Wright -5.4
184 Brian Tallet -5.8
185 Aaron Miles -6.3
186 Wes Helms -6.4
187 Mark Kotsay -6.7
188 Alex Cora -6.8
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