How Well Do Monthly Winning Percentage and Overall Winning Percentage Correlate?

On twitter (you can follow me there by the way @stealofhome) @yanks08701 asked me “Can you do a report on which month’s winning percentage correlates best with a teams overall winning percentage?” After a little initial confusion, I decided that yes, this is something I could do. Here is a chart that looks at each team’s monthly winning percentage (that month only) plotted against end of year winning percentage:

 

 

This is from 1998-2010. August and September have the best correlation, but it is still only at about .45. June has the worst correlation at .31.

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