Taking a Look at 2012 Pre-Season Prospect Rankings

Last year I did a comparison post between various pre-season prospect lists. It went over extremely well, so it is back this year. However, I’ll be doing away with the graphs this year as they’re time-consuming and don’t add much to the discussion.

You can view the consensus top 185 here.

Lists

Baseball America

Baseball Instinct

Baseball Prospect Nation

Bullpen Banter

Frankie Piliere, Scout

John Sickels

Jonathan Mayo, MLB

Keith Law, ESPN

Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

MLB Dirt

MLB Prospect Portal

Project Prospect

Rich Wilson

I also looked at Seedlings to Stars, but excluded that site from the actual rankings of prospects.

Likes: The list places a prospect at least two standard deviations below the average ranking. A prospect must be on at least five lists to qualify.

Dislikes: The list places a prospect at least two standard deviations above the average ranking. A prospect must be on at least five lists to qualify.

Surprising Inclusion:  The list includes a prospect ranked better than 80 which is only included on at most four lists.

Surprising Exclusion: The list does not include a prospect that is ranked anywhere on at least eight other lists.

To determine overall rank, I gave each player a certain total depending where he was ranked on each list. a #1 ranking equals 100 points and a 100 ranking equals 1 point. These are all added together and the prospect with the highest total is ranked 1st.

Yu Darvish and Yoenis Cespedes were not ranked by every site, so that throws their ranking off a bit. Darvish’s average ranking is 5 and Cespedes’s is 19.

Baseball America

Likes: (BA, Total Rank, StDev)
Matt Szczur (64, 107, 5.05)
Blake Swihart (72, 114, 2.77)
Cory Spangenberg (78, 102, 2.18)

Dislikes: (BA, Total Rank, StDev)
Wil Myers (28, 14, -2.70)
Nolan Arenado (42, 20, -2.37)
Shelby Miller (8, 4, -2.34)
Matt Harvey (70, 31, -2.30)
Michael Choice (80, 46, -2.18)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, BA)
Yu Darvish (4, 4)
Yoenis Cespedes (3, 14)
Zack Cozart (1, 75)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Robbie Erlin (10, 78)
Noah Syndergaard (9, 91)

Baseball Instinct

Likes: (BIS, Total Rank, StDev)
Jesse Biddle (67, 99, 3.66)
Matt Barnes (51, 98, 3.47)
Jeurys Familia (66, 105, 3.46)
Matt Szczur (82, 107, 2.94)
Eddie Rosario (23, 85, 2.28)
Tyrell Jenkins (44, 84, 2.15)
Taylor Guerrieri (64, 96, 2.03)

Dislikes: (BIS, Total Rank, StDev)
Manny Machado (16, 8, -2.75)
Jake Odorizzi (94, 56, -2.16)
Gary Brown (65, 34, -2.12)
Travis d’Arnaud (47, 19, -2.09)
Jurickson Profar (10, 5, -2.06)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, BIS)
Garin Cecchini (4, 37)
Nestor Molina (4, 75)
Jose Campos (3, 45)
James Darnell (2, 46)
Trevor Rosenthal (1, 43)
Jose Fernandez (3,79)
Dante Bichette Jr. (2, 78)
Vinny Catricala (1, 69)
Rougned Odor (1, 80)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Leonys Martin (8, 76)
Francisco Lindor (12, 35)
Noah Syndergaard (9, 91)
Sonny Gray (11, 71)
Wily Peralta (8, 74)
Jarred Cosart (10, 64)
Addison Reed (10, 82)
Mike Olt (11, 62)
Anthony Gose (12, 54)
Jed Bradley (8, 91)

Baseball Prospect Nation

Likes: (BPN, Total Rank, StDev)
Derek Norris (82, 112, 3.53)

Dislikes: (BPN, Total Rank, StDev)
Jameson Taillon (28, 11, -3.16)
Tyler Skaggs (37, 18, -3.16)
Gary Sanchez (100, 50, -2.83)
Jarrod Parker (63, 28, -2.78)
Carlos Martinez (70, 26, -2.78)
Trevor Bauer (35, 12, -2.29)
Xander Bogaerts (86, 42, -2.22)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, BPN)
Yoenis Cespedes (3, 27)
Garin Cecchini (4, 78)
Tim Wheeler (3, 72)
Sebastian Valle (1, 44)
Alex Meyer (3, 68)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Casey Kelly (11, 67)
Billy Hamilton (10, 59)
Yonder Alonso (12, 48)
A.J. Cole (12, 58)
Jonathan Schoop (10, 79)
Anthony Rizzo (12, 44)
George Springer (11, 60)

Bullpen Banter

Likes: (BB, Total Rank, StDev)
Derek Norris (73, 112, 4.59)
John Lamb (85, 116, 3.42)
Justin Nicolino (72, 106, 2.82)
Garrett Richards (42, 97, 2.73)
Chad Bettis (37, 54, 2.33)
Matt Barnes (67, 98, 2.29)
Mike Trout (1, 3, 2.16)

Dislikes: (BB, Total Rank, StDev)
Jesus Montero (18, 7, -2.77)
Anthony Rizzo (78, 44, -2.15)
Gerrit Cole (15, 9, -2.05)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, BB)
Garin Cecchini (4, 65)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Billy Hamilton (10, 59)
Mason Williams (10, 80)
Addison Reed (10, 82)
Wily Peralta (8, 74)

Frankie Piliere, Scout

Likes: (SC, Total Rank, StDev)
Blake Swihart (66, 114, 3.17)
Matt Szczur (81, 107, 3.05)
Oswaldo Arcia (51, 93, 2.95)
Grant Green (47, 100, 2.54)
Aaron Hicks (27, 87, 2.46)
Christian Bethancourt (37, 89, 2.30)
Jarred Cosart (25, 64, 2.16)
Taylor Jungmann (65, 95, 2.05)

Dislikes: (SC, Total Rank, StDev)
Dylan Bundy (30, 10, -3.26)
Christian Yelich (74, 33, -3.21
Taijuan Walker (76, 21, -3.15)
Anthony Rendon (56, 15, -3.14)
Bryce Harper (3, 1, -3.07)
Zack Wheeler (53, 30, -2.60)
Trevor Bauer (36, 12, -2.39)
Yasmani Grandal (90, 49, -2.34)
Yonder Alonso (97, 48, -2.18)
Matt Harvey (52, 31, -2.10)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, SC)
Nestor Molina (4, 63)
Anthony Ranaudo (2, 62)
Alex Torres (1, 71)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Kolten Wong (9, 83)
Wilin Rosario (9, 70)
Taylor Guerrieri (8, 96)
Chad Bettis (12, 75)

John Sickels

Likes: (JS, Total Rank, StDev)
Jesse Biddle (71, 99, 3.21)
Justin Nicolino (68, 106, 3.15)
Derek Norris (88, 112, 2.82)
Noah Syndergaard (67, 91, 2.61)
Nathan Eovaldi (87, 111, 2.48)
Addison Reed (44, 82,  2.09)

Dislikes: (JS, Total Rank, StDev)
Martin Perez (83, 25, -3.23)
Manny Banuelos (45, 22, -2.12)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, JS)
Yu Darvish (4, 4)
Yoenis Cespedes (3, 17)
Andrelton Simmons (4, 76)
Nestor Molina (4, 72)
Deck McGuire (2, 80)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Casey Kelly (11, 67)
Wilin Rosario (9, 70)
Taylor Guerrieri (8, 96)
Mike Montgomery (11, 37)
Javier Baez (12, 73)
Allen Webster (9, 90)
Dellin Betances (12, 57)
Jed Bradley (8, 91)
Leonys Martin (8, 76)
Jarred Cosart (10, 64)

Jonathan Mayo, MLB 

Likes: (JM, Total Rank, StDev)
Nathan Eovaldi (70, 111, 4.24)
Jesse Biddle (78, 99, 2.40)

Dislikes: (JM, Total Rank, StDev)
James Paxton (77, 36, -2.36)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, JM)
Andrelton Simmons (4, 65)
Chris Archer (3, 74)
Bryce Brentz (2, 64)
Brody Colvin (1, 80)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Oscar Taveras (12, 51)
Robbie Erlin (10, 78)
Jonathan Schoop (10, 79)
Tyrell Jenkins (8, 84)
Kolten Wong (9, 83)
Cheslor Cuthbert (11, 72)

Keith Law, ESPN

Likes: (KL, Total Rank, StDev)
Zack Cox (66, 104, 4.18)
Nathan Eovaldi (79, 111, 3.31)
Taylor Jungmann (58, 95, 2.53)
Drew Hutchison (42, 88, 2.43)
Derek Norris (93, 112, 2.23)
Allen Webster (61, 90, 2.18)
Mike Trout (1, 3, 2.16)
Mason Williams (34, 80, 2.10)

Dislikes: (KL, Total Rank, StDev)
Randall Delgado (98, 40, -3.21)
Brett Jackson (89, 37, -2.74)
Drew Pomeranz (45, 24, -2.43)
Gary Brown (68, 34, -2.32)
Julio Teheran (18, 6, -2.16)
Danny Hultzen (30, 17, -2.05)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, KL)
Chris Archer (3, 63)
Joe Ross (4, 49)
Daniel Corcino (3, 54)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Leonys Martin (8, 76)
Jed Bradley (8, 91)
Noah Syndergaard (9, 91)
Brad Peacock (12, 68)
Robbie Erlin (10, 78)
Kolten Wong (9, 83)
Wilin Rosario (9, 70)
Will Middlebrooks (11, 65)

Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

Likes: (BP, Total Rank, StDev)
Cory Spangenberg (58, 102, 3.99)
John Lamb (82, 116, 3.75)
Daniel Norris (54, 94, 2.92)
Luis Heredia (42, 110, 2.82)
Billy Hamilton (22, 59, 2.29)

Dislikes: (BP, Total Rank, StDev)
Shelby Miller (10, 4, -3.52)
Danny Hultzen (35, 17, -2.83)
Jonathan Singleton (73, 41, -2.40)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, BP)
Brandon Jacobs (2, 46)
Robbie Grossman (3, 76)
Jose Fernandez (3, 80)
Matt Adams (1, 69)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Mike Montgomery (11, 37)
Nick Franklin (12, 55)
Leonys Martin (8, 76)
Jed Bradley (8, 91)
Taylor Guerrieri (8, 50)
Tyrell Jenkins (8, 39)
Allen Webster (9, 58)

MLB Dirt

Likes: (MLBD, Total Rank, StDev)
Zack Cox (72, 104, 3.52)
John Lamb (90, 116, 2.87)
Matt Szczur (85, 107, 2.58)
Justin Nicolino (76, 59, 2.49)
Mike Trout (1, 3, 2.16)

Dislikes: (MLBD, Total Rank, StDev)
Wil Myers (26, 14, -2.31)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, MLBD)
Aaron Sanchez (2, 78)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Kolten Wong (9, 83)
Tyrell Jenkins (8, 84)

MLB Prospect Portal

Likes: (MPP, Total Rank, StDev)
Jesse Biddle (62, 99, 4.24)
Zack Cox (73, 104, 3.41)
Jeurys Familia (78, 105, 2.40)

Dislikes: (MPP, Total Rank, StDev)
Jurickson Profar (13, 5, -3.29)
Francisco Lindor (89, 35, -2.73)
Jean Segura (87, 43, -2.42)
Devin Mesoraco (28, 13, -2.39)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, MPP)
Yu Darvish (4, 5)
Drew Smyly (2, 58)
Keyvius Sampson (4, 65)
Deck McGuire (2, 67)
Kyle Gibson (1, 80)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Jed Bradley (8, 91)
Leonys Martin (8, 76)
Taylor Guerrieri (8, 96)
Wily Peralta (8, 74)
Mason Williams (10, 58)
Tyrell Jenkins (8, 84)
George Springer (11, 60)
Addison Reed (10, 82)
Allen Webster (9, 90)
Sonny Gray (11, 71)

Project Prospect

Likes: (PP, Total Rank, StDev)
Joe Wieland (50, 101, 3.19)
Jeurys Familia (73, 105, 2.84)
Taylor Guerrieri (64, 96, 2.73)
Jed Bradley (64, 91, 2.20)
Mike Trout (1, 3, 2.16)

Dislikes: (PP, Total Rank, StDev)
Gerrit Cole (19, 9, -3.41)
Miguel Sano (68, 23, -3.24)
Jake Marisnick (100, 45, -2.84)
Julio Teheran (21, 6, -2.70)
Jacob Turner (34, 16, -2.50)
Jonathan Singleton (69, 41, -2.10)
Arodys Vizcaino (70, 32, -2.09)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, PP)
Yu Darvish (4, 6)
Andrelton Simmons (4, 66)
David Holmberg (1, 48)
Ronald Torreyes (1, 75)
Hector Gomez (1, 80)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Jonathan Schoop (10, 79)
Jedd Gyorko (11, 77)
Jake Odorizzi (12, 56)
Billy Hamilton (10, 59)
Will Middlebrooks (11, 65)
Jarred Cosart (10, 64)
Wily Peralta (8, 74)
Mason Williams (10, 80)
Tyrell Jenkins (8, 84)
Allen Webster (9, 90)

Rich Wilson

Likes: (RW, Total Rank, StDev)
John Lamb (77, 116, 4.30)
Derek Norris (81, 112, 3.65)
Matt Szczur (83, 107, 2.82)
Cory Spangenberg (72, 102, 2.72)
Nathan Eovaldi (86, 111, 2.59)
Zack Cox (84, 104, 2.20)

Dislikes: (RW, Total Rank, StDev)
Archie Bradley (59, 29, -2.83)
Christian Yelich (66, 33, -2.58)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, RW)
Bryce Brentz (2, 76)
Tim Wheeler (3, 60)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Mike Olt (11, 62)
Wily Peralta (8, 74)
Noah Syndergaard (9, 91)
Taylor Guerrieri (8, 96)

Seedlings to Stars

Likes: (S2S, Total Rank, StDev)
Joe Wieland (24, 101, 4.82)
Jeurys Familia (54, 105, 4.53)
Drew Hutchison (20, 88, 3.59)
Robbie Erlin (11, 78, 3.27)
John Lamb (90, 116, 2.87)
Anthony Gose (22, 54, 2.32)
Tyler Skaggs (5, 18, 2.16)
Mike Trout (1, 3, 2.16)

Dislikes: (S2S, Total Rank, StDev)
Jesus Montero (42, 7, -8.82)
Nolan Arenado (87, 20, -7.23)
Christian Yelich (94, 33, -4.78)
Dylan Bundy (39, 10, -4.73)
Danny Hultzen (46, 17, -4.56)
Mike Montgomery (84, 37, -3.95)
Archie Bradley (63, 29, -3.20)
Francisco Lindor (98, 35, -3.18)
Bryce Harper (3, 1, -3.07)
Gary Brown (76, 34, -2.87)
Matt Moore (4, 2, -2.50)
Zack Wheeler (51, 30, -2.38)
Shelby Miller (8, 4, -2.34)
Bubba Starling (52, 27, -2.26)
Yonder Alonso (97, 48, -2.18)
Gerrit Cole (15, 9, -2.05)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, S2S)
Nestor Molina (4, 44)
Tim Wheeler (3, 56)
Daniel Corcino (3, 75)
Keyvius Sampson (4, 62)
David Holmberg (1, 31)
Robbie Grossman (3, 61)
Vinny Catricala (1, 59)
Ryan Lavarnway (4, 53)
Tyler Thornburg (2, 78)
Liam Hendriks (1, 80)
Cody Buckel (0, 19)
Miguel De Los Santos (0, 49)
Yordano Ventura (0, 57)
Jonathan Galvez (0, 58)
Tom Milone (0, 60)
Eric Surkamp (0, 64)
Steve Lombardozzi (0, 66)
Julio Rodriguez (0, 67)
Marcell Ozuna (0, 71)
Matt Lollis (0, 74)
Brian Dozier (0, 77)
Yorman Rodriguez (0, 79)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Starling Marte (13, 66)
Nick Castellanos (13, 47)
George Springer (11, 60)
Javier Baez (12, 73)
Jed Bradley (8, 91)
Addison Reed (10, 82)
Tyrell Jenkins (8, 84)
Sonny Gray (11, 71)
Will Middlebrooks (11, 65)
Billy Hamilton (10, 59)
Anthony Rizzo (12, 44)
Jarrod Parker (13, 28)
Jedd Gyorko (11, 77)
Mason Williams (10, 80)
Mike Olt (11, 62)
Noah Syndergaard (9, 91)
Taylor Guerrieri (8, 96)
Casey Kelly (11, 67)
Jarred Cosart (10, 64)
Allen Webster (9, 90)
Kolten Wong (9, 83)
Zach Lee (13, 51)
Wilin Rosario (9, 70)
Leonys Martin (8, 76)


3 Comments on “Taking a Look at 2012 Pre-Season Prospect Rankings”

  1. [...] Chris St. John at Steal of Home has a great analysis comparing many of the major Top 100 prospect lists. The only Met about which there was any measure of disagreement on was Jeurys Familia. The rankings who had him relatively high: Seedlings to Stars (#54), Baseball Instinct  (#66), MLB Prospect Portal  (#78) and Project Prospect (#73). Store that away. [...]

  2. [...] top prospect rankings. In today’s Afternoon Snack I noted that over the weekend they had analysed a number of Top 100-ish lists, comparing them to one another, and noting which prospects stood out as being high or low relative [...]

  3. [...] Steal of Home compares of a bunch of pre-season Top 100 Prospects lists, picking out players that are liked and [...]


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