MLB Team Rankings and Updated Standings – Week 25
Posted: September 12, 2011 Filed under: Rankings 1 Comment »Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation, which has 3 steps:
1: Convert offense and pitching statistics (number of singles, home runs, hits allowed, etc.) into expected runs scored or allowed.
2: Convert that to a winning percentage
3: Adjust for quality of opponents. (I weight the winning percentages so that there are exactly 15*162, or 2,430 calculated wins)
Data from Baseball-Reference.
Rankings
Follow @stealofhome| Rank | Team | 3rd Order W% | Change |
| 1 | Boston Red Sox | 0.614 | 0 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Phillies | 0.604 | 1 |
| 3 | New York Yankees | 0.593 | -1 |
| 4 | Texas Rangers | 0.580 | 0 |
| 5 | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.545 | 1 |
| 6 | Milwaukee Brewers | 0.537 | -1 |
| 7 | Atlanta Braves | 0.537 | 0 |
| 8 | Detroit Tigers | 0.527 | 0 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Angels | 0.518 | 0 |
| 10 | St. Louis Cardinals | 0.516 | 2 |
| 11 | New York Mets | 0.513 | 0 |
| 12 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.512 | 1 |
| 13 | San Francisco Giants | 0.507 | 1 |
| 14 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.505 | 1 |
| 15 | Florida Marlins | 0.503 | 2 |
| 16 | Toronto Blue Jays | 0.503 | -6 |
| 17 | Colorado Rockies | 0.496 | 2 |
| 18 | Cincinnati Reds | 0.495 | -2 |
| 19 | Chicago White Sox | 0.492 | -1 |
| 20 | Cleveland Indians | 0.486 | 0 |
| 21 | Washington Nationals | 0.484 | 1 |
| 22 | Oakland Athletics | 0.481 | -1 |
| 23 | San Diego Padres | 0.472 | 0 |
| 24 | Kansas City Royals | 0.464 | 0 |
| 25 | Seattle Mariners | 0.463 | 0 |
| 26 | Chicago Cubs | 0.455 | 0 |
| 27 | Baltimore Orioles | 0.419 | 0 |
| 28 | Houston Astros | 0.403 | 0 |
| 29 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.397 | 0 |
| 30 | Minnesota Twins | 0.381 | 0 |
Follow the jump to see updated divisional standings.
Updated Standings
This is what the standings would look like if the teams actually had the calculated records above.
| Div | Team | W | L | GB |
| ALC | DET | 77 | 69 | 0 |
| ALC | CHW | 71 | 74 | 5 |
| ALC | CLE | 70 | 74 | 6 |
| ALC | KCR | 69 | 79 | 9 |
| ALC | MIN | 56 | 90 | 21 |
| Div | Team | W | L | GB |
| ALE | BOS | 90 | 56 | 0 |
| ALE | NYY | 86 | 59 | 3 |
| ALE | TBR | 79 | 66 | 10 |
| ALE | TOR | 74 | 73 | 16 |
| ALE | BAL | 61 | 84 | 28 |
| Div | Team | W | L | GB |
| ALW | TEX | 85 | 62 | 0 |
| ALW | LAA | 76 | 70 | 9 |
| ALW | OAK | 70 | 76 | 14 |
| ALW | SEA | 68 | 78 | 17 |
| Div | Team | W | L | GB |
| NLC | MIL | 80 | 68 | 0 |
| NLC | STL | 75 | 71 | 3 |
| NLC | CIN | 72 | 74 | 6 |
| NLC | CHC | 66 | 80 | 12 |
| NLC | HOU | 59 | 87 | 20 |
| NLC | PIT | 58 | 88 | 21 |
| Div | Team | W | L | GB |
| NLE | PHI | 86 | 57 | 0 |
| NLE | ATL | 79 | 68 | 9 |
| NLE | NYM | 75 | 71 | 13 |
| NLE | FLA | 73 | 72 | 14 |
| NLE | WSN | 70 | 74 | 17 |
| Div | Team | W | L | GB |
| NLW | ARI | 75 | 72 | 0 |
| NLW | SFG | 74 | 72 | 1 |
| NLW | LAD | 73 | 72 | 1 |
| NLW | COL | 72 | 74 | 2 |
| NLW | SDP | 69 | 78 | 6 |
Wouldn’t you want to adjust for the actual number of innings batted and innings pitched each team has? E.g., really good teams will bat fewer innings and pitch more innings than really bad teams will. This will cause the 3rd-order RS-RA value — and thus the 3rd-order win pct. — to be too low for very good teams, and too high for bad teams.