A Personal Note

Posted: August 29, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Administrative | Leave a comment »

Things have changed a bit in my life recently, bringing me to a point of decision. I have added new priorities — priorities that have pushed baseball writing to the side. Consequently, I have decided to terminate my work at Baseball Prospectus and MLB Daily Dish.

I’m thankful to everyone who gave me an opportunity, beginning with R.J. Anderson and Tommy Rancel at The Process Report, but I feel it is time for me to focus on my career as an engineer and on the relationships in my life.

I started this blog in September of 2010 and never imagined that it would take me all the way to the masthead of Baseball Prospectus and the byline of ESPN.com.

I’m grateful to Justin Bopp who took a chance on me at Beyond the Box Score and the whole team at Baseball Prospectus who was (and continues to be) very helpful and knowledgeable.

I will continue to post here at Steal of Home and my work may show up elsewhere every so often. And of course, you can always follow me on twitter

Thanks for reading and I’ll see you around!

MLB Team Rankings and Updated Standings – Week 23

Posted: August 29, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Rankings | Leave a comment »

Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation, which has 3 steps:

1: Convert offense and pitching statistics (number of singles, home runs, hits allowed, etc.) into expected runs scored or allowed.

2: Convert that to a winning percentage

3: Adjust for quality of opponents. (I weight the winning percentages so that there are exactly 15*162, or 2,430 calculated wins)

Data from Baseball-Reference.

Rankings

Rank Team 3rd Order W% Change
1 Boston Red Sox 0.623 1
2 New York Yankees 0.617 -1
3 Philadelphia Phillies 0.596 0
4 Texas Rangers 0.558 0
5 Tampa Bay Rays 0.551 1
6 Atlanta Braves 0.543 -1
7 Milwaukee Brewers 0.542 0
8 New York Mets 0.519 4
9 Detroit Tigers 0.516 -1
10 St. Louis Cardinals 0.513 0
11 Los Angeles Angels 0.512 2
12 San Francisco Giants 0.510 -1
13 Cincinnati Reds 0.504 2
14 Los Angeles Dodgers 0.503 5
15 Toronto Blue Jays 0.502 -6
16 Arizona Diamondbacks 0.501 2
17 Chicago White Sox 0.499 -3
18 Colorado Rockies 0.495 -2
19 Cleveland Indians 0.491 -2
20 Oakland Athletics 0.483 0
21 San Diego Padres 0.480 0
22 Florida Marlins 0.478 1
23 Washington Nationals 0.474 -1
24 Seattle Mariners 0.462 0
25 Kansas City Royals 0.457 0
26 Chicago Cubs 0.449 0
27 Baltimore Orioles 0.422 0
28 Pittsburgh Pirates 0.408 0
29 Houston Astros 0.404 0
30 Minnesota Twins 0.388 0

Follow the jump to see updated divisional standings.

Read the rest of this entry »

MLB Team Rankings and Updated Standings – Week 22

Posted: August 22, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Rankings | 1 Comment »

Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation, which has 3 steps:

1: Convert offense and pitching statistics (number of singles, home runs, hits allowed, etc.) into expected runs scored or allowed.

2: Convert that to a winning percentage

3: Adjust for quality of opponents. (I weight the winning percentages so that there are exactly 15*162, or 2,430 calculated wins)

Data from Baseball-Reference.

Rankings

Rank Team 3rd Order W% Change
1 New York Yankees 0.620 1
2 Boston Red Sox 0.616 -1
3 Philadelphia Phillies 0.595 0
4 Texas Rangers 0.571 0
5 Atlanta Braves 0.551 0
6 Tampa Bay Rays 0.538 1
7 Milwaukee Brewers 0.538 -1
8 Detroit Tigers 0.523 4
9 Toronto Blue Jays 0.522 2
10 St. Louis Cardinals 0.518 0
11 San Francisco Giants 0.516 -3
12 New York Mets 0.515 -3
13 Los Angeles Angels 0.505 0
14 Chicago White Sox 0.504 4
15 Cincinnati Reds 0.500 1
16 Colorado Rockies 0.498 1
17 Cleveland Indians 0.496 -2
18 Arizona Diamondbacks 0.492 -4
19 Los Angeles Dodgers 0.491 1
20 Oakland Athletics 0.489 -1
21 San Diego Padres 0.485 1
22 Washington Nationals 0.477 1
23 Florida Marlins 0.476 -2
24 Seattle Mariners 0.461 0
25 Kansas City Royals 0.449 0
26 Chicago Cubs 0.448 0
27 Baltimore Orioles 0.410 0
28 Pittsburgh Pirates 0.405 1
29 Houston Astros 0.396 1
30 Minnesota Twins 0.395 -2

Follow the jump to see updated divisional standings.

Read the rest of this entry »

MLB Team Rankings and Updated Standings – Week 21

Posted: August 15, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Rankings | Leave a comment »

Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation, which has 3 steps:

1: Convert offense and pitching statistics (number of singles, home runs, hits allowed, etc.) into expected runs scored or allowed.

2: Convert that to a winning percentage

3: Adjust for quality of opponents. (I weight the winning percentages so that there are exactly 15*162, or 2,430 calculated wins)

Data from Baseball-Reference.

Rankings

Rank Team 3rd Order W% Change
1 Boston Red Sox 0.617 0
2 New York Yankees 0.617 0
3 Philadelphia Phillies 0.593 0
4 Texas Rangers 0.569 0
5 Atlanta Braves 0.540 0
6 Milwaukee Brewers 0.532 0
7 Tampa Bay Rays 0.528 0
8 San Francisco Giants 0.524 2
9 New York Mets 0.522 2
10 St. Louis Cardinals 0.521 -1
11 Toronto Blue Jays 0.520 2
12 Detroit Tigers 0.517 -4
13 Los Angeles Angels 0.510 -1
14 Arizona Diamondbacks 0.507 0
15 Cleveland Indians 0.506 1
16 Cincinnati Reds 0.505 -1
17 Colorado Rockies 0.500 0
18 Chicago White Sox 0.496 0
19 Oakland Athletics 0.490 1
20 Los Angeles Dodgers 0.487 3
21 Florida Marlins 0.483 -2
22 San Diego Padres 0.475 -1
23 Washington Nationals 0.471 -1
24 Seattle Mariners 0.467 0
25 Kansas City Royals 0.451 0
26 Chicago Cubs 0.444 0
27 Baltimore Orioles 0.415 0
28 Minnesota Twins 0.400 0
29 Pittsburgh Pirates 0.400 0
30 Houston Astros 0.393 0

Follow the jump to see updated divisional standings.

Read the rest of this entry »

Blue Jays Caught Stealing Signs? But by Whom?

Posted: August 10, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Research | 54 Comments »

The Toronto Blue Jays have been under fire for “stealing signs” at home for the past year, most publicly by Yankees manager Joe Girardi. Basically, some of the opposing teams believe that the Blue Jays are using a third-party to find out what the pitcher will be throwing once he accepts the sign from the catcher.

Today, Amy K. Nelson and Peter Keating wrote an article at ESPN detailing a specific sign-stealing incident.

I was interested to see if I could find which game this incident happened, based on what we can find from the article. This is what we know:

  1. The game happened in the spring of 2010 (April 5th – June 20).
  2. It took place at the Rogers Centre.
  3. The opponent was an American League team.
  4. Jose Bautista played right field.
  5. Jose Bautista struck out late in the game.
  6. The opposing team was not using multiple signs with runners on base early in the game, but started doing this later in the game.
  7. The game was not the last in the series, since the opposing team was able to go to the stadium the next day.

Based on these criteria, six games appear:

Date Opponent
13-Apr CHW
2-May OAK
28-May BAL
29-May BAL
1-Jun TBR
5-Jun NYY

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MLB Team Rankings and Updated Standings – Week 20

Posted: August 8, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Rankings | Leave a comment »

Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation, which has 3 steps:

1: Convert offense and pitching statistics (number of singles, home runs, hits allowed, etc.) into expected runs scored or allowed.

2: Convert that to a winning percentage

3: Adjust for quality of opponents. (I weight the winning percentages so that there are exactly 15*162, or 2,430 calculated wins)

Data from Baseball-Reference.

Rankings

Rank Team 3rd Order W% Change
1 Boston Red Sox 0.622 0
2 New York Yankees 0.618 0
3 Philadelphia Phillies 0.596 0
4 Texas Rangers 0.561 0
5 Atlanta Braves 0.539 0
6 Milwaukee Brewers 0.527 7
7 Tampa Bay Rays 0.525 0
8 Detroit Tigers 0.524 4
9 St. Louis Cardinals 0.524 -1
10 San Francisco Giants 0.521 1
11 New York Mets 0.521 -2
12 Los Angeles Angels 0.520 -6
13 Toronto Blue Jays 0.515 -3
14 Arizona Diamondbacks 0.506 1
15 Cincinnati Reds 0.505 -1
16 Cleveland Indians 0.496 4
17 Colorado Rockies 0.495 -1
18 Chicago White Sox 0.494 0
19 Florida Marlins 0.492 -2
20 Oakland Athletics 0.487 -1
21 San Diego Padres 0.479 2
22 Washington Nationals 0.475 0
23 Los Angeles Dodgers 0.475 -2
24 Seattle Mariners 0.472 0
25 Kansas City Royals 0.453 0
26 Chicago Cubs 0.440 0
27 Baltimore Orioles 0.415 1
28 Minnesota Twins 0.404 1
29 Pittsburgh Pirates 0.401 -2
30 Houston Astros 0.398 0

Follow the jump to see updated divisional standings.

Read the rest of this entry »

Projected Two-Thirds Season MLB Statistical Leaders

Posted: August 2, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Research | Leave a comment »

We’re two-thirds of the way through the 2011 MLB season. That means it’s time to multiply everything by 1.5 and see what happens! I did this at a third of the way and halfway through the season as well.

I have included the current MLB record along with the projected number for the leader in each category. I did this by taking the total games played for each player’s team and extrapolating their current stats based on that.

Hitters:

Statistic Record Current Pace Leader(s)
AVG 0.440 0.356 Adrian Gonzalez
AB 716 677 Melky Cabrera
PA 778 748 Dustin Pedroia
H 262 233 Adrian Gonzalez
1B 225 153 Adrian Gonzalez
2B 67 51 Ben Zobrist
3B 36 24 Jose Reyes
HR 73 47 Jose Bautista
R 192 145 Curtis Granderson
RBI 191 136 Adrian Gonzalez
BB 232 126 Jose Bautista
IBB 120 27 Prince Fielder
SO 223 207 *2 tied, see below
HBP 51 30 Carlos Quentin
GDP 36 35 Adrian Gonzalez
SB 130 58 Michael Bourn
CS 42 24 Juan Pierre

*SO Leaders: Adam Dunn, Drew Stubbs

Pitchers:

Statistic Record Current Pace Leader(s)
W 59 24 CC Sabathia
L 48 20 *2 tied, see below
CG 75 11 James Shields
ShO 16 6 *2 tied, see below
SV 62 49 Brian Wilson
HLD 40 41 Tyler Clippard
IP 680 272 Justin Verlander
H 772 256 Chris Carpenter
ER 291 122 Bronson Arroyo
HR 50 45 Bronson Arroyo
BB 289 95 *2 tied, see below
HBP 54 15 *2 tied, see below
WP 63 20 A.J. Burnett
BK 16 5 Cole Hamels
SO 513 267 Justin Verlander

*L Leaders: Jeremy Guthrie, Hiroki Kuroda
*ShO Leaders: Cliff Lee, Derek Holland
*BB Leaders: A.J. Burnett, Trevor Cahill
*HBP Leaders: Jon Lester, Randy Wolf

 

Adrian Gonzalez and Albert Pujols continue to challenge the grounded into double play record and Tyler Clippard is closing in on the holds record. Bronson Arroyo is close to the home runs allowed record, but probably won’t reach it.

Kevin Correia has dropped to seventh on the wins leaderboard.

MLB Team Rankings and Updated Standings – Week 19

Posted: August 1, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Rankings | Leave a comment »

Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation, which has 3 steps:

1: Convert offense and pitching statistics (number of singles, home runs, hits allowed, etc.) into expected runs scored or allowed.

2: Convert that to a winning percentage

3: Adjust for quality of opponents. (I weight the winning percentages so that there are exactly 15*162, or 2,430 calculated wins)

Data from Baseball-Reference.

Rankings

Rank Team 3rd Order W% Change
1 Boston Red Sox 0.628 0
2 New York Yankees 0.610 0
3 Philadelphia Phillies 0.592 0
4 Texas Rangers 0.568 0
5 Atlanta Braves 0.550 0
6 Los Angeles Angels 0.530 2
7 Tampa Bay Rays 0.527 2
8 St. Louis Cardinals 0.525 3
9 New York Mets 0.523 1
10 Toronto Blue Jays 0.522 -3
11 San Francisco Giants 0.521 -5
12 Detroit Tigers 0.520 0
13 Milwaukee Brewers 0.517 0
14 Cincinnati Reds 0.511 1
15 Arizona Diamondbacks 0.508 2
16 Colorado Rockies 0.494 -2
17 Florida Marlins 0.494 2
18 Chicago White Sox 0.491 0
19 Oakland Athletics 0.485 2
20 Cleveland Indians 0.484 -4
21 Los Angeles Dodgers 0.472 3
22 Washington Nationals 0.470 -2
23 San Diego Padres 0.469 -1
24 Seattle Mariners 0.465 -1
25 Kansas City Royals 0.454 0
26 Chicago Cubs 0.428 0
27 Pittsburgh Pirates 0.416 0
28 Baltimore Orioles 0.415 0
29 Minnesota Twins 0.410 0
30 Houston Astros 0.403 0

Follow the jump to see updated divisional standings.

Read the rest of this entry »

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