MLB Team Rankings and Updated Standings – Week 18

Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation, which has 3 steps:

1: Convert offense and pitching statistics (number of singles, home runs, hits allowed, etc.) into expected runs scored or allowed.

2: Convert that to a winning percentage

3: Adjust for quality of opponents. (I weight the winning percentages so that there are exactly 15*162, or 2,430 calculated wins)

Data from Baseball-Reference.

Rankings

Rank Team 3rd Order W% Change
1 Boston Red Sox 0.632 0
2 New York Yankees 0.608 0
3 Philadelphia Phillies 0.575 0
4 Texas Rangers 0.565 1
5 Atlanta Braves 0.552 -1
6 San Francisco Giants 0.534 2
7 Toronto Blue Jays 0.530 0
8 Los Angeles Angels 0.527 -2
9 Tampa Bay Rays 0.523 0
10 New York Mets 0.522 0
11 St. Louis Cardinals 0.520 0
12 Detroit Tigers 0.519 0
13 Milwaukee Brewers 0.512 0
14 Colorado Rockies 0.503 3
15 Cincinnati Reds 0.502 0
16 Cleveland Indians 0.496 -2
17 Arizona Diamondbacks 0.495 -1
18 Chicago White Sox 0.492 0
19 Florida Marlins 0.485 0
20 Washington Nationals 0.484 0
21 Oakland Athletics 0.474 0
22 San Diego Padres 0.473 2
23 Seattle Mariners 0.472 0
24 Los Angeles Dodgers 0.471 -2
25 Kansas City Royals 0.439 1
26 Chicago Cubs 0.435 1
27 Pittsburgh Pirates 0.431 -2
28 Baltimore Orioles 0.421 0
29 Minnesota Twins 0.410 0
30 Houston Astros 0.402 0

Follow the jump to see updated divisional standings.

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Taking a Look at Midseason Prospect Rankings

I did something similar to this with Preseason Prospect Rankings. This time around, I only have Keith Law (Insider), Baseball America, Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus Subscriber) and Bullpen Banter. However, there is some difficulty in comparing the lists, as they all have different criteria, so I won’t make graphs or do the Likes/Dislikes as I did previously. Also, Bullpen Banter is the only full Top 100 list. Each of the other three lists 50. Since BB’s is the only list that contains 2011 draftees, I deleted those 18 players and re-ranked the rest of the 82 eligible players, keeping only the top 50.

List Criteria:

Keith Law (KL, ESPN): This list doesn’t include players who’ve graduated to the majors, who have exhausted or are on pace to exhaust their rookie eligibility for 2012, and there are no 2011 draftees on this list because the draftees who might be good enough to make the list haven’t signed yet.

Baseball America (BA): Prospects have to have not used up their rookie eligibility or currently be in the big leagues to be eligible. Also, 2011 draftees are not yet eligible.

Kevin Goldstein (BP): The latest top 50 is restricted to players still in the minors.

Bullpen Banter (BB): If a player has thrown a MLB pitch or had a MLB plate apperance they are disqualified. All players from the 2011 Draft - signed or unsigned – were available to be selected regardless of signing speculation.

Consensus Top 25:

Definition: Each time a player appears in a list, he gets a score of 51 minus his rank. These are added for each list and the players are ranked by total points.

Rank Player POS Team
1 Bryce Harper of Nationals
2 Matt Moore lhp Rays
3 Shelby Miller rhp Cardinals
4 Manny Machado ss Orioles
5 Brett Lawrie 3b Blue Jays
5 Jameson Taillon rhp Pirates
7 Martin Perez lhp Rangers
7 Devin Mesoraco c Reds
9 Jurickson Profar ss Rangers
10 Jesus Montero c Yankees
11 Jacob Turner rhp Tigers
12 Carlos Martinez rhp Cardinals
13 Manny Banuelos lhp Yankees
14 Julio Teheran rhp Braves
15 Hak-Ju Lee ss Rays
16 Arodys Vizcaino rhp Braves
17 Drew Pomeranz lhp Indians
18 Travis D’Arnaud c Blue Jays
19 Desmond Jennings of Rays
20 Taijuan Walker rhp Mariners
21 Matt Harvey rhp Mets
22 Tyler Skaggs lhp Diamondbacks
23 Wil Myers of Royals
24 Aaron Hicks of Twins
25 Jason Kipnis 2b Indians

Players in Top 50 of all Lists:

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MLB Team Rankings and Updated Standings – Week 17

Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation, which has 3 steps:

1: Convert offense and pitching statistics (number of singles, home runs, hits allowed, etc.) into expected runs scored or allowed.

2: Convert that to a winning percentage

3: Adjust for quality of opponents. (I weight the winning percentages so that there are exactly 15*162, or 2,430 calculated wins)

Data from Baseball-Reference.

Rankings

Rank Team 3rd Order W% Change
1 Boston Red Sox 0.639 0
2 New York Yankees 0.609 0
3 Philadelphia Phillies 0.574 0
4 Atlanta Braves 0.554 0
5 Texas Rangers 0.552 1
6 Los Angeles Angels 0.538 -1
7 Toronto Blue Jays 0.531 1
8 San Francisco Giants 0.529 1
9 Tampa Bay Rays 0.528 -2
10 New York Mets 0.523 4
11 St. Louis Cardinals 0.513 -1
12 Detroit Tigers 0.512 -1
13 Milwaukee Brewers 0.507 -1
14 Cleveland Indians 0.505 -1
15 Cincinnati Reds 0.501 1
16 Arizona Diamondbacks 0.500 -1
17 Colorado Rockies 0.497 2
18 Chicago White Sox 0.492 -1
19 Florida Marlins 0.492 1
20 Washington Nationals 0.481 1
21 Oakland Athletics 0.477 2
22 Los Angeles Dodgers 0.475 0
23 Seattle Mariners 0.466 -5
24 San Diego Padres 0.460 0
25 Pittsburgh Pirates 0.441 2
26 Kansas City Royals 0.430 0
27 Chicago Cubs 0.429 -2
28 Baltimore Orioles 0.423 0
29 Minnesota Twins 0.415 1
30 Houston Astros 0.407 -1

 

Follow the jump to see updated divisional standings.

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What Roger Clemens Means to Me

Today, Roger Clemens’ perjury trial was declared a mistrial, due to some evidence added by the prosecution that was already deemed inadmissible. Apparently. That’s what Craig Calcaterra tells me and I trust him. I know basically nothing about courtroom stuff, besides what I learned at Boys State and a fake trial in Social Studies class in 9th grade*. But I do know I have some thoughts about Roger Clemens.

*I was the judge and I don’t remember what the case was about or what the verdict was, but I do remember not allowing a “police officer” to testify about blood spatter because he wasn’t an expert. I’m all about taking advantage of any power I am given.

I grew up in a family of six (now seven) people, none of whom cared one iota about sports. In fact, the closest my family got to sports was when my sister played volleyball in middle school. We didn’t have a television and we didn’t play them as a family. However, there was an old man who lived down the street from us named Tommy Thompson (not the former governor of Wisconsin) who for whatever reason decided to give his entire collection of baseball cards to me and my brothers. Neither of my brothers cared for them as much as I did, though. I would sort and resort the cards, first by player name, then by team, then by year and I would read the back of them. I was astonished at even the thought of placing them in my bike spokes, for fear of ruining them beyond repair. Bret Saberhagen and Tom Brunansky were among my favorites, simply because they kept showing up in the decks.

For many years, baseball cards were my only knowledge of baseball at all, apart from listening to Brewers games on the radio. In fact, when I read “The Red Sox Brunansky” on the back of one of the cards, I literally thought, “Oh, does every team have a player named Tom Brunansky?” Maybe that was a function of my naivety in general and not simply of baseball. In Wisconsin, police officers would hand out decks of Brewers baseball cards, in an effort to create a positive public image. Every summer, I would run up (carefully) to the first one I saw and ask him (politely) for a pack. Since no one else in my family wanted to play sports, I would take a tennis ball and throw it at a basketball backboard in order to play catch with myself. It probably looked ridiculously silly, but I’m pretty good at catching now, at least.  The only time I actually played baseball was in a youth softball summer league, which remains as some of my favorite memories from childhood.

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MLB Home Run Derby – Historical Perspective

I put together a database for the participants of the home run derby, which began in 1985. It includes total home runs hit during the derby, amount by the player up to that point in the season, and career home runs per plate appearance, which I will use as my measure of a home run hitter. The data come from mlb.com and baseball-reference.

10 Worst Home Run Hitters in Home Run Derby History:

B.J. Surhoff
Joe Mauer
Hubie Brooks
Alex Rios
Wally Joyner
Damion Easley
Brandon Inge
Brady Anderson
Steve Garvey
Bobby Abreu

10 Best Home Run Hitters in Home Run Derby History:

Mark McGwire
Ryan Howard
Sammy Sosa
Juan Gonzalez
Barry Bonds
Jim Thome
Albert Pujols
Alex Rodriguez
Albert Belle
Jose Canseco

10 Worst Home Run Hitters to Win:

1986   Wally Joyner
2005   Bobby Abreu
1990   Ryne Sandberg
2003   Garret Anderson
1985   Dave Parker
1991   Cal Ripken
2001   Luis Gonzalez
2004   Miguel Tejada
1989   Ruben Sierra
1987   Andre Dawson

Best Home Run Hitter to Not Win:

Jim Thome: 1997, 1998, 2004

Participants to Not Hit a Single Home Run:

Year Player
1989 Gary Gaetti
1990 Jose Canseco
1990 Ken Griffey Jr.
1990 Cecil Fielder
1990 Darryl Strawberry
1990 Bobby Bonilla
1991 Howard Johnson
1991 Chris Sabo
1993 Mike Piazza
1994 Mike Piazza
1996 Greg Vaughn
1996 Gary Sheffield
1997 Jim Thome
1997 Nomar Garciaparra
2001 Troy Glaus
2003 Bret Boone
2005 Jason Bay
2009 Brandon Inge

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MLB Team Rankings – Week 16

Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation, which has 3 steps:

1: Convert offense and pitching statistics (number of singles, home runs, hits allowed, etc.) into expected runs scored or allowed.

2: Convert that to a winning percentage

3: Adjust for quality of opponents. (I weight the winning percentages so that there are exactly 15*162, or 2,430 calculated wins)

Data from Baseball-Reference.

Rank Team 3rd Order W% Change
1 Boston Red Sox 0.636 0
2 New York Yankees 0.610 0
3 Philadelphia Phillies 0.574 0
4 Atlanta Braves 0.564 0
5 Los Angeles Angels 0.546 0
6 Texas Rangers 0.539 0
7 Tampa Bay Rays 0.529 2
8 Toronto Blue Jays 0.529 -1
9 San Francisco Giants 0.522 -1
10 St. Louis Cardinals 0.520 0
11 Detroit Tigers 0.517 0
12 Milwaukee Brewers 0.513 0
13 Cleveland Indians 0.510 0
14 New York Mets 0.510 2
15 Arizona Diamondbacks 0.499 0
16 Cincinnati Reds 0.498 3
17 Chicago White Sox 0.491 0
18 Seattle Mariners 0.487 -4
19 Colorado Rockies 0.487 -1
20 Florida Marlins 0.478 4
21 Washington Nationals 0.478 0
22 Los Angeles Dodgers 0.474 0
23 Oakland Athletics 0.468 -3
24 San Diego Padres 0.467 -1
25 Chicago Cubs 0.447 0
26 Kansas City Royals 0.436 2
27 Pittsburgh Pirates 0.431 0
28 Baltimore Orioles 0.425 -2
29 Houston Astros 0.407 0
30 Minnesota Twins 0.406 0

MLB Team Rankings – Week 15

Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation. Data from Baseball-Reference.

Rank Team 3rd Order W% Change
1 Boston Red Sox 0.622 0
2 New York Yankees 0.618 0
3 Philadelphia Phillies 0.568 0
4 Atlanta Braves 0.556 0
5 Los Angeles Angels 0.534 10
6 Texas Rangers 0.528 6
7 Toronto Blue Jays 0.527 1
8 San Francisco Giants 0.525 1
9 Tampa Bay Rays 0.521 1
10 St. Louis Cardinals 0.520 -3
11 Detroit Tigers 0.519 -6
12 Milwaukee Brewers 0.514 -6
13 Cleveland Indians 0.509 1
14 Seattle Mariners 0.507 5
15 Arizona Diamondbacks 0.502 -4
16 New York Mets 0.501 4
17 Chicago White Sox 0.499 -4
18 Colorado Rockies 0.498 -2
19 Cincinnati Reds 0.494 -2
20 Oakland Athletics 0.478 2
21 Washington Nationals 0.477 -3
22 Los Angeles Dodgers 0.473 2
23 San Diego Padres 0.471 0
24 Florida Marlins 0.465 -3
25 Chicago Cubs 0.446 2
26 Baltimore Orioles 0.443 -1
27 Pittsburgh Pirates 0.434 1
28 Kansas City Royals 0.434 -2
29 Houston Astros 0.410 0
30 Minnesota Twins 0.406 0

Projected Mid-Season MLB Statistical Leaders

We’re just past halfway through the 2011 MLB season. That means it’s time to multiply everything by two and see what happens! I did this at a third of the way through the season as well.

I have included the current MLB record along with the projected number for the leader in each category. I did this by taking the total games played for each player’s team and extrapolating their current stats based on that.

Hitters:

Statistic Record Current Pace Leader(s)
AVG 0.440 0.354 Jose Reyes
AB 716 682 Starlin Castro
PA 778 739 Rickie Weeks
H 262 236 Jose Reyes
1B 225 160 Jose Reyes
2B 67 53 Adrian Gonzalez
3B 36 29 Jose Reyes
HR 73 51 Jose Bautista
R 192 141 Curtis Granderson
RBI 191 143 Adrian Gonzalez
BB 232 133 Jose Bautista
IBB 120 27 *2 tied, see below
SO 223 217 Drew Stubbs
HBP 51 32 Carlos Quentin
GDP 36 38 Adrian Gonzalez
SB 130 67 Michael Bourn
CS 42 19 Jacoby Ellsbury

*IBB Leaders: Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera

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