MLB Team Rankings and Updated Standings – Week 18
Posted: July 25, 2011 Filed under: Rankings Leave a comment »Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation, which has 3 steps:
1: Convert offense and pitching statistics (number of singles, home runs, hits allowed, etc.) into expected runs scored or allowed.
2: Convert that to a winning percentage
3: Adjust for quality of opponents. (I weight the winning percentages so that there are exactly 15*162, or 2,430 calculated wins)
Data from Baseball-Reference.
Rankings
Follow @stealofhome| Rank | Team | 3rd Order W% | Change |
| 1 | Boston Red Sox | 0.632 | 0 |
| 2 | New York Yankees | 0.608 | 0 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Phillies | 0.575 | 0 |
| 4 | Texas Rangers | 0.565 | 1 |
| 5 | Atlanta Braves | 0.552 | -1 |
| 6 | San Francisco Giants | 0.534 | 2 |
| 7 | Toronto Blue Jays | 0.530 | 0 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Angels | 0.527 | -2 |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.523 | 0 |
| 10 | New York Mets | 0.522 | 0 |
| 11 | St. Louis Cardinals | 0.520 | 0 |
| 12 | Detroit Tigers | 0.519 | 0 |
| 13 | Milwaukee Brewers | 0.512 | 0 |
| 14 | Colorado Rockies | 0.503 | 3 |
| 15 | Cincinnati Reds | 0.502 | 0 |
| 16 | Cleveland Indians | 0.496 | -2 |
| 17 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.495 | -1 |
| 18 | Chicago White Sox | 0.492 | 0 |
| 19 | Florida Marlins | 0.485 | 0 |
| 20 | Washington Nationals | 0.484 | 0 |
| 21 | Oakland Athletics | 0.474 | 0 |
| 22 | San Diego Padres | 0.473 | 2 |
| 23 | Seattle Mariners | 0.472 | 0 |
| 24 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.471 | -2 |
| 25 | Kansas City Royals | 0.439 | 1 |
| 26 | Chicago Cubs | 0.435 | 1 |
| 27 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.431 | -2 |
| 28 | Baltimore Orioles | 0.421 | 0 |
| 29 | Minnesota Twins | 0.410 | 0 |
| 30 | Houston Astros | 0.402 | 0 |
Follow the jump to see updated divisional standings.
Taking a Look at Midseason Prospect Rankings
Posted: July 18, 2011 Filed under: Prospects 4 Comments »I did something similar to this with Preseason Prospect Rankings. This time around, I only have Keith Law (Insider), Baseball America, Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus Subscriber) and Bullpen Banter. However, there is some difficulty in comparing the lists, as they all have different criteria, so I won’t make graphs or do the Likes/Dislikes as I did previously. Also, Bullpen Banter is the only full Top 100 list. Each of the other three lists 50. Since BB’s is the only list that contains 2011 draftees, I deleted those 18 players and re-ranked the rest of the 82 eligible players, keeping only the top 50.
List Criteria:
Keith Law (KL, ESPN): This list doesn’t include players who’ve graduated to the majors, who have exhausted or are on pace to exhaust their rookie eligibility for 2012, and there are no 2011 draftees on this list because the draftees who might be good enough to make the list haven’t signed yet.
Baseball America (BA): Prospects have to have not used up their rookie eligibility or currently be in the big leagues to be eligible. Also, 2011 draftees are not yet eligible.
Kevin Goldstein (BP): The latest top 50 is restricted to players still in the minors.
Bullpen Banter (BB): If a player has thrown a MLB pitch or had a MLB plate apperance they are disqualified. All players from the 2011 Draft - signed or unsigned – were available to be selected regardless of signing speculation.
Consensus Top 25:
Definition: Each time a player appears in a list, he gets a score of 51 minus his rank. These are added for each list and the players are ranked by total points.
| Rank | Player | POS | Team |
| 1 | Bryce Harper | of | Nationals |
| 2 | Matt Moore | lhp | Rays |
| 3 | Shelby Miller | rhp | Cardinals |
| 4 | Manny Machado | ss | Orioles |
| 5 | Brett Lawrie | 3b | Blue Jays |
| 5 | Jameson Taillon | rhp | Pirates |
| 7 | Martin Perez | lhp | Rangers |
| 7 | Devin Mesoraco | c | Reds |
| 9 | Jurickson Profar | ss | Rangers |
| 10 | Jesus Montero | c | Yankees |
| 11 | Jacob Turner | rhp | Tigers |
| 12 | Carlos Martinez | rhp | Cardinals |
| 13 | Manny Banuelos | lhp | Yankees |
| 14 | Julio Teheran | rhp | Braves |
| 15 | Hak-Ju Lee | ss | Rays |
| 16 | Arodys Vizcaino | rhp | Braves |
| 17 | Drew Pomeranz | lhp | Indians |
| 18 | Travis D’Arnaud | c | Blue Jays |
| 19 | Desmond Jennings | of | Rays |
| 20 | Taijuan Walker | rhp | Mariners |
| 21 | Matt Harvey | rhp | Mets |
| 22 | Tyler Skaggs | lhp | Diamondbacks |
| 23 | Wil Myers | of | Royals |
| 24 | Aaron Hicks | of | Twins |
| 25 | Jason Kipnis | 2b | Indians |
Players in Top 50 of all Lists:
MLB Team Rankings and Updated Standings – Week 17
Posted: July 18, 2011 Filed under: Rankings Leave a comment »Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation, which has 3 steps:
1: Convert offense and pitching statistics (number of singles, home runs, hits allowed, etc.) into expected runs scored or allowed.
2: Convert that to a winning percentage
3: Adjust for quality of opponents. (I weight the winning percentages so that there are exactly 15*162, or 2,430 calculated wins)
Data from Baseball-Reference.
Rankings
Follow @stealofhome| Rank | Team | 3rd Order W% | Change |
| 1 | Boston Red Sox | 0.639 | 0 |
| 2 | New York Yankees | 0.609 | 0 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Phillies | 0.574 | 0 |
| 4 | Atlanta Braves | 0.554 | 0 |
| 5 | Texas Rangers | 0.552 | 1 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Angels | 0.538 | -1 |
| 7 | Toronto Blue Jays | 0.531 | 1 |
| 8 | San Francisco Giants | 0.529 | 1 |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.528 | -2 |
| 10 | New York Mets | 0.523 | 4 |
| 11 | St. Louis Cardinals | 0.513 | -1 |
| 12 | Detroit Tigers | 0.512 | -1 |
| 13 | Milwaukee Brewers | 0.507 | -1 |
| 14 | Cleveland Indians | 0.505 | -1 |
| 15 | Cincinnati Reds | 0.501 | 1 |
| 16 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.500 | -1 |
| 17 | Colorado Rockies | 0.497 | 2 |
| 18 | Chicago White Sox | 0.492 | -1 |
| 19 | Florida Marlins | 0.492 | 1 |
| 20 | Washington Nationals | 0.481 | 1 |
| 21 | Oakland Athletics | 0.477 | 2 |
| 22 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.475 | 0 |
| 23 | Seattle Mariners | 0.466 | -5 |
| 24 | San Diego Padres | 0.460 | 0 |
| 25 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.441 | 2 |
| 26 | Kansas City Royals | 0.430 | 0 |
| 27 | Chicago Cubs | 0.429 | -2 |
| 28 | Baltimore Orioles | 0.423 | 0 |
| 29 | Minnesota Twins | 0.415 | 1 |
| 30 | Houston Astros | 0.407 | -1 |
Follow the jump to see updated divisional standings.
What Roger Clemens Means to Me
Posted: July 14, 2011 Filed under: Human Interest | Tags: Roger Clemens 1 Comment »Today, Roger Clemens’ perjury trial was declared a mistrial, due to some evidence added by the prosecution that was already deemed inadmissible. Apparently. That’s what Craig Calcaterra tells me and I trust him. I know basically nothing about courtroom stuff, besides what I learned at Boys State and a fake trial in Social Studies class in 9th grade*. But I do know I have some thoughts about Roger Clemens.
*I was the judge and I don’t remember what the case was about or what the verdict was, but I do remember not allowing a “police officer” to testify about blood spatter because he wasn’t an expert. I’m all about taking advantage of any power I am given.
I grew up in a family of six (now seven) people, none of whom cared one iota about sports. In fact, the closest my family got to sports was when my sister played volleyball in middle school. We didn’t have a television and we didn’t play them as a family. However, there was an old man who lived down the street from us named Tommy Thompson (not the former governor of Wisconsin) who for whatever reason decided to give his entire collection of baseball cards to me and my brothers. Neither of my brothers cared for them as much as I did, though. I would sort and resort the cards, first by player name, then by team, then by year and I would read the back of them. I was astonished at even the thought of placing them in my bike spokes, for fear of ruining them beyond repair. Bret Saberhagen and Tom Brunansky were among my favorites, simply because they kept showing up in the decks.
For many years, baseball cards were my only knowledge of baseball at all, apart from listening to Brewers games on the radio. In fact, when I read “The Red Sox Brunansky” on the back of one of the cards, I literally thought, “Oh, does every team have a player named Tom Brunansky?” Maybe that was a function of my naivety in general and not simply of baseball. In Wisconsin, police officers would hand out decks of Brewers baseball cards, in an effort to create a positive public image. Every summer, I would run up (carefully) to the first one I saw and ask him (politely) for a pack. Since no one else in my family wanted to play sports, I would take a tennis ball and throw it at a basketball backboard in order to play catch with myself. It probably looked ridiculously silly, but I’m pretty good at catching now, at least. The only time I actually played baseball was in a youth softball summer league, which remains as some of my favorite memories from childhood.
MLB Home Run Derby – Historical Perspective
Posted: July 11, 2011 Filed under: Research Leave a comment »I put together a database for the participants of the home run derby, which began in 1985. It includes total home runs hit during the derby, amount by the player up to that point in the season, and career home runs per plate appearance, which I will use as my measure of a home run hitter. The data come from mlb.com and baseball-reference.
10 Worst Home Run Hitters in Home Run Derby History:
| B.J. Surhoff |
| Joe Mauer |
| Hubie Brooks |
| Alex Rios |
| Wally Joyner |
| Damion Easley |
| Brandon Inge |
| Brady Anderson |
| Steve Garvey |
| Bobby Abreu |
10 Best Home Run Hitters in Home Run Derby History:
| Mark McGwire |
| Ryan Howard |
| Sammy Sosa |
| Juan Gonzalez |
| Barry Bonds |
| Jim Thome |
| Albert Pujols |
| Alex Rodriguez |
| Albert Belle |
| Jose Canseco |
10 Worst Home Run Hitters to Win:
| 1986 | Wally Joyner |
| 2005 | Bobby Abreu |
| 1990 | Ryne Sandberg |
| 2003 | Garret Anderson |
| 1985 | Dave Parker |
| 1991 | Cal Ripken |
| 2001 | Luis Gonzalez |
| 2004 | Miguel Tejada |
| 1989 | Ruben Sierra |
| 1987 | Andre Dawson |
Best Home Run Hitter to Not Win:
Jim Thome: 1997, 1998, 2004
Participants to Not Hit a Single Home Run:
| Year | Player |
| 1989 | Gary Gaetti |
| 1990 | Jose Canseco |
| 1990 | Ken Griffey Jr. |
| 1990 | Cecil Fielder |
| 1990 | Darryl Strawberry |
| 1990 | Bobby Bonilla |
| 1991 | Howard Johnson |
| 1991 | Chris Sabo |
| 1993 | Mike Piazza |
| 1994 | Mike Piazza |
| 1996 | Greg Vaughn |
| 1996 | Gary Sheffield |
| 1997 | Jim Thome |
| 1997 | Nomar Garciaparra |
| 2001 | Troy Glaus |
| 2003 | Bret Boone |
| 2005 | Jason Bay |
| 2009 | Brandon Inge |
MLB Team Rankings – Week 16
Posted: July 11, 2011 Filed under: Rankings Leave a comment »Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation, which has 3 steps:
1: Convert offense and pitching statistics (number of singles, home runs, hits allowed, etc.) into expected runs scored or allowed.
2: Convert that to a winning percentage
3: Adjust for quality of opponents. (I weight the winning percentages so that there are exactly 15*162, or 2,430 calculated wins)
Data from Baseball-Reference.
| Rank | Team | 3rd Order W% | Change |
| 1 | Boston Red Sox | 0.636 | 0 |
| 2 | New York Yankees | 0.610 | 0 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Phillies | 0.574 | 0 |
| 4 | Atlanta Braves | 0.564 | 0 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Angels | 0.546 | 0 |
| 6 | Texas Rangers | 0.539 | 0 |
| 7 | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.529 | 2 |
| 8 | Toronto Blue Jays | 0.529 | -1 |
| 9 | San Francisco Giants | 0.522 | -1 |
| 10 | St. Louis Cardinals | 0.520 | 0 |
| 11 | Detroit Tigers | 0.517 | 0 |
| 12 | Milwaukee Brewers | 0.513 | 0 |
| 13 | Cleveland Indians | 0.510 | 0 |
| 14 | New York Mets | 0.510 | 2 |
| 15 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.499 | 0 |
| 16 | Cincinnati Reds | 0.498 | 3 |
| 17 | Chicago White Sox | 0.491 | 0 |
| 18 | Seattle Mariners | 0.487 | -4 |
| 19 | Colorado Rockies | 0.487 | -1 |
| 20 | Florida Marlins | 0.478 | 4 |
| 21 | Washington Nationals | 0.478 | 0 |
| 22 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.474 | 0 |
| 23 | Oakland Athletics | 0.468 | -3 |
| 24 | San Diego Padres | 0.467 | -1 |
| 25 | Chicago Cubs | 0.447 | 0 |
| 26 | Kansas City Royals | 0.436 | 2 |
| 27 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.431 | 0 |
| 28 | Baltimore Orioles | 0.425 | -2 |
| 29 | Houston Astros | 0.407 | 0 |
| 30 | Minnesota Twins | 0.406 | 0 |
MLB Team Rankings – Week 15
Posted: July 6, 2011 Filed under: Rankings Leave a comment »Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation. Data from Baseball-Reference.
| Rank | Team | 3rd Order W% | Change |
| 1 | Boston Red Sox | 0.622 | 0 |
| 2 | New York Yankees | 0.618 | 0 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Phillies | 0.568 | 0 |
| 4 | Atlanta Braves | 0.556 | 0 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Angels | 0.534 | 10 |
| 6 | Texas Rangers | 0.528 | 6 |
| 7 | Toronto Blue Jays | 0.527 | 1 |
| 8 | San Francisco Giants | 0.525 | 1 |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.521 | 1 |
| 10 | St. Louis Cardinals | 0.520 | -3 |
| 11 | Detroit Tigers | 0.519 | -6 |
| 12 | Milwaukee Brewers | 0.514 | -6 |
| 13 | Cleveland Indians | 0.509 | 1 |
| 14 | Seattle Mariners | 0.507 | 5 |
| 15 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.502 | -4 |
| 16 | New York Mets | 0.501 | 4 |
| 17 | Chicago White Sox | 0.499 | -4 |
| 18 | Colorado Rockies | 0.498 | -2 |
| 19 | Cincinnati Reds | 0.494 | -2 |
| 20 | Oakland Athletics | 0.478 | 2 |
| 21 | Washington Nationals | 0.477 | -3 |
| 22 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.473 | 2 |
| 23 | San Diego Padres | 0.471 | 0 |
| 24 | Florida Marlins | 0.465 | -3 |
| 25 | Chicago Cubs | 0.446 | 2 |
| 26 | Baltimore Orioles | 0.443 | -1 |
| 27 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.434 | 1 |
| 28 | Kansas City Royals | 0.434 | -2 |
| 29 | Houston Astros | 0.410 | 0 |
| 30 | Minnesota Twins | 0.406 | 0 |
Projected Mid-Season MLB Statistical Leaders
Posted: July 5, 2011 Filed under: Research 1 Comment »We’re just past halfway through the 2011 MLB season. That means it’s time to multiply everything by two and see what happens! I did this at a third of the way through the season as well.
I have included the current MLB record along with the projected number for the leader in each category. I did this by taking the total games played for each player’s team and extrapolating their current stats based on that.
Hitters:
| Statistic | Record | Current Pace | Leader(s) |
| AVG | 0.440 | 0.354 | Jose Reyes |
| AB | 716 | 682 | Starlin Castro |
| PA | 778 | 739 | Rickie Weeks |
| H | 262 | 236 | Jose Reyes |
| 1B | 225 | 160 | Jose Reyes |
| 2B | 67 | 53 | Adrian Gonzalez |
| 3B | 36 | 29 | Jose Reyes |
| HR | 73 | 51 | Jose Bautista |
| R | 192 | 141 | Curtis Granderson |
| RBI | 191 | 143 | Adrian Gonzalez |
| BB | 232 | 133 | Jose Bautista |
| IBB | 120 | 27 | *2 tied, see below |
| SO | 223 | 217 | Drew Stubbs |
| HBP | 51 | 32 | Carlos Quentin |
| GDP | 36 | 38 | Adrian Gonzalez |
| SB | 130 | 67 | Michael Bourn |
| CS | 42 | 19 | Jacoby Ellsbury |
*IBB Leaders: Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera
