Jeff Francoeur Motivational Poster

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I created this on the day that the Royals announced the signing of Jeff Francoeur.


Correlating Curt Schilling’s stat PDF with FIRE

I recently did this with Jim Bowden’s OPSBI and it was too much fun to not do this again.

Curt Schilling invented a stat called “Pitchers dominance factor.” You take a pitcher’s ERA and add it to WHIP*9. Then, you do the same for the overall league. Finally, you subtract the pitcher’s number from the league number. Here’s that in equation form:

(LeagueERA+LeagueWHIP*9) – (PitcherERA+PitcherWHIP*9)

Colin Wyers was expressing his disinterest  for this stat on twitter (@cwyers) and I told him I was looking at correlating it with something, but wasn’t sure what to use. He told me – and I quote – “Correlate it WITH FIRE.” So that’s what I’m going to do.

I invented a stat called Fielding Independent Runs Equivalent (FIRE). It takes the Baseball Prospectus stat SIERA, divides by 9 and multiplies by Innings Pitched:

FIRE = SIERA/9*IP

SIERA is a fielding-independent pitching statistic in the form of ERA. Basically, if a pitcher had a league-average defense, park and luck, what would his ERA be? FIRE is simply converting SIERA to runs.

Here is PDF vs. FIRE for 2010, with only those pitchers who qualified for the ERA title (greater than 162 innings pitched):

Click to Enlarge

There’s a trend, but the r^2 value is pretty bad.

Here’s 2010 with all pitchers with greater than 49 IP:

Click to Enlarge

Even worse. Sorry Colin, FIRE doesn’t work well against PDF.


MLB Team Rankings – Week 13

Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation. Data from Baseball-Reference.

Rank Team 3rd Order W% Change
1 Boston Red Sox 0.669 0
2 New York Yankees 0.652 0
3 Philadelphia Phillies 0.593 3
4 Atlanta Braves 0.591 -1
5 Detroit Tigers 0.581 4
6 Milwaukee Brewers 0.560 -2
7 St. Louis Cardinals 0.552 -2
8 Toronto Blue Jays 0.551 3
9 San Francisco Giants 0.548 -2
10 Tampa Bay Rays 0.545 7
11 Arizona Diamondbacks 0.542 1
12 Texas Rangers 0.541 -2
13 Chicago White Sox 0.536 2
14 Cleveland Indians 0.535 2
15 Los Angeles Angels 0.534 -1
16 Colorado Rockies 0.530 -3
17 Cincinnati Reds 0.522 1
18 Washington Nationals 0.520 1
19 Seattle Mariners 0.519 2
20 New York Mets 0.517 0
21 Florida Marlins 0.511 -13
22 Oakland Athletics 0.499 1
23 San Diego Padres 0.474 1
24 Los Angeles Dodgers 0.468 -2
25 Baltimore Orioles 0.462 0
26 Kansas City Royals 0.456 1
27 Chicago Cubs 0.454 1
28 Pittsburgh Pirates 0.451 -2
29 Houston Astros 0.448 0
30 Minnesota Twins 0.434 0

How Good of an Offensive Metric is OPSBI?

Update: Just so everyone is clear: I do not agree with the concept of adding RBIs to OPS. If you are looking for a “quick stat,” I recommend looking at OPS all by itself; it does a fine job. The purpose of this was to simply look at OPSBI and see how well it correlates with a more advanced statistic.

Last night, Jim Bowden put up a post on ESPN.com, wherein he created a new stat called OPSBI. Basically, you take the OPS of a player, multiply it by 1000 and add RBI to it. I can honestly say I’ve never thought of doing this, but let’s see how it stacks up to an advanced hitting metric like Fangraphs batting runs. I took only players with greater than 1500 plate appearances in the past three years. This provides a 133 player sample. Here ya go:

(Click picture to make it larger)

R^2 of 0.84 with batting runs? Not as terrible as you may think.


MLB Team Rankings – Week 12

Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation. Data from Baseball-Reference.

 

Rank Team 3rd Order W%
1 Boston Red Sox 0.655
2 New York Yankees 0.630
3 Atlanta Braves 0.622
4 Milwaukee Brewers 0.591
5 St. Louis Cardinals 0.583
6 Philadelphia Phillies 0.577
7 San Francisco Giants 0.570
8 Florida Marlins 0.554
9 Detroit Tigers 0.552
10 Texas Rangers 0.543
11 Toronto Blue Jays 0.542
12 Arizona Diamondbacks 0.541
13 Colorado Rockies 0.540
14 Los Angeles Angels 0.534
15 Chicago White Sox 0.532
16 Cleveland Indians 0.530
17 Tampa Bay Rays 0.530
18 Cincinnati Reds 0.520
19 Washington Nationals 0.516
20 New York Mets 0.511
21 Seattle Mariners 0.505
22 Los Angeles Dodgers 0.490
23 Oakland Athletics 0.488
24 San Diego Padres 0.481
25 Baltimore Orioles 0.458
26 Pittsburgh Pirates 0.454
27 Kansas City Royals 0.450
28 Chicago Cubs 0.444
29 Houston Astros 0.443
30 Minnesota Twins 0.415

 


MLB Team Rankings – Week 11

Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation. Data from Baseball-Reference.

 

Rank Team 3rd Order W% Change
1 New York Yankees 0.637 1
2 Boston Red Sox 0.637 -1
3 Texas Rangers 0.605 3
4 Toronto Blue Jays 0.598 -1
5 Los Angeles Angels 0.580 -1
6 Atlanta Braves 0.572 2
7 St. Louis Cardinals 0.571 0
8 Detroit Tigers 0.559 2
9 Cleveland Indians 0.553 -4
10 Tampa Bay Rays 0.545 -1
11 Philadelphia Phillies 0.539 0
12 Chicago White Sox 0.537 1
13 Seattle Mariners 0.534 2
14 Milwaukee Brewers 0.533 0
15 Oakland Athletics 0.532 -3
16 San Francisco Giants 0.528 0
17 Florida Marlins 0.512 0
18 Arizona Diamondbacks 0.500 0
19 Colorado Rockies 0.491 0
20 Washington Nationals 0.472 3
21 Cincinnati Reds 0.472 -1
22 Kansas City Royals 0.458 -1
23 Baltimore Orioles 0.457 1
24 New York Mets 0.448 -2
25 Los Angeles Dodgers 0.435 3
26 San Diego Padres 0.434 -1
27 Pittsburgh Pirates 0.431 0
28 Minnesota Twins 0.416 2
29 Houston Astros 0.406 0
30 Chicago Cubs 0.400 -4

 


Two Out Rally – Game Review

Two Out Rally (2OR) is an online baseball role-playing game (RPG) housed at TwoOutRally.com. The game opened for alpha testing in May of 2010 and has been in beta testing since fall of the same year. Since it is still in beta testing, features are constantly being added. However, 2OR is still robust and chock-full of fun for any baseball or RPG fan.

Two Out Rally Home Screen

Influence

The “currency” of the game is called influence. A new scout receives 300 influence, which is enough to create a player and still have 100 influence left over. Influence is also available for purchase for as little as $2.50. However, there are also opportunities to win influence for free.

Read the rest of this entry »


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