Taking a(nother) Look at Prospect Rankings

Well, this is it. I did a preliminary look at prospect lists here. This time, I am including the Bullpen Banter and Fangraphs rankings. I have also changed my methodology a bit.


Likes: The list places a prospect at least two standard deviations below the average ranking. A prospect must be on at least 5 lists to qualify.

Dislikes: The list places a prospect at least two standard deviations above the average ranking. A prospect must be on at least 5 lists to qualify.

Surprising Inclusion:  The list includes a prospect ranked better than 80 which is only included on at most 3 lists.

Surprising Exclusion: The list does not include a prospect that is ranked anywhere on at least 6 other lists.

I also changed how the overall rank was calculated. Instead of taking an average rank, I gave each player a certain total depending where he was ranked on each list. a #1 ranking equals 100 points and a 100 ranking equals 1 point. These are all added together and the prospect with the highest total is ranked 1st, etc. Mike Trout ranked 1st with a total of 896 out of a possible 900 points. Bryce Harper was 2nd with a total of 888 points.

AOL

Likes:
None

Dislikes: (AOL, Total Rank, StDev)
Bryce Harper (7, 2, -2.58)
Wil Myers (22, 9, -2.42)
Nick Franklin (66, 44, -2.38)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, AOL)
Oswaldo Arcia (2, 65)
Jeremy Jeffress (2, 75)
Zach Stewart (3, 56)
Andrew Brackman (3, 60)
Adeiny Hechevarria (3, 76)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Yasmani Grandal (6, 77)
Nick Castellanos (7, 69)
Zach Lee (7, 79)

Baseball America

Likes: (BA, Total Rank, StDev)
Christian Colon (51, 87, 2.47)

Dislikes:
None

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, BA)
Cesar Puello (2, 77)
Tyler Chatwood (3, 76)
Andrew Brackman (3, 78)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Yasmani Grandal (6, 77)
Hank Conger (6, 82)
Matt Harvey (6, 89)

Bullpen Banter

Likes: (BB, Total Rank, StDev)
Danny Espinosa (56, 88, 2.33)
Jake McGee (49, 86, 2.18)

Dislikes: (BB, Total Rank, StDev)
Zach Britton (38, 16, -2.45)
Billy Hamilton (100, 61, -2.06)
Zack Wheeler (70, 45, -2.01)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, BB)
Engel Beltre (2, 80)
Trayvon Robinson (3, 69)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Anthony Rizzo (7, 58)
Tyler Skaggs (7, 83)

Baseball Prospectus

Likes: (BP, Total Rank, StDev)
Craig Kimbrel (56, 84, 2.47)
J.P. Arencibia (38, 73, 2.13)
Stetson Allie (39, 80, 2.06)

Dislikes: (BP, Total Rank, StDev)
Dustin Ackley (25, 10, -2.30)
Tony Sanchez (93, 57, -2.22)
Chris Archer (70, 43, -2.18)
Casey Kelly (48, 27, -2.17)
Anthony Ranaudo (100, 64, -2.11)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, BP)
Kenley Jansen, (1, 72)
Jeremy Jeffress (2, 76)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Jarred Cosart (6, 66)
Yonder Alonso (8, 55)

Fangraphs

Likes: (FG, Total Rank, StDev)
Drake Britton (71, 100, 2.79)
Nolan Arenado (62, 91, 2.19)

Dislikes: (FG, Total Rank, StDev)
Jordan Lyles (64, 39, -2.08)
Desmond Jennings (24, 14, -2.00)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, FG)
Aaron Miller (1, 63)
Carlos Perez (2, 79)
Jared Mitchell (2, 80)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Matt Harvey (6, 89)
Hank Conger (6, 82)

Keith Law

Likes: (KL, Total Rank, StDev)
Hank Conger (62, 82, 2.54)

Dislikes: (KL, Total Rank, StDev)
Mike Minor (61, 30, -2.64)
Freddie Freeman (43, 21, -2.26)
Jameson Taillon (30, 15, -2.24)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, KL)
Carlos Martinez (2, 52)
Oswaldo Arcia (2, 74)
Alex Torres (2, 77)
Christian Yelich (2, 79)
Zach Stewart (3, 44)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Alex White (7, 67)
Christian Colon (7, 87)
Brett Jackson (8, 46)
Jake Odorizzi (8, 59)
Tanner Scheppers (8, 72)

MLB

Likes: (MLB, Total Rank, StDev)
Tanner Scheppers (43, 72, 2.13)

Dislikes: (MLB, Total Rank, StDev)
Jesus Montero (9, 3, -3.12)
Matt Moore (27, 13, -2.31)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, MLB)
None

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank) (Only includes those players with a Total Rank in the top 50)
Randall Delgado (8, 40)
Zack Wheeler (8, 45)
Jean Segura (8, 47)
Jason Kipnis (8, 48)
Derek Norris (8, 49)
Miguel Sano (8, 50)

Prospect Junkies

Likes: (PJ, Total Rank, StDev)
Zack Cox (53, 78, 2.23)

Dislikes: (PJ, Total Rank, StDev)
Manny Banuelos (65, 26, -2.38)
Domonic Brown (10, 4, -2.35)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, PJ)
Nick Weglarz (2, 72)
Cesar Puello (2, 78)
A.J. Cole (2, 79)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Danny Duffy (6, 71)
Brody Colvin (6, 75)
Craig Kimbrel (6, 84)

Project Prospect

Likes: (PP, Total Rank, StDev)
Nick Castellanos (32, 69, 2.54)
Matt Harvey (48, 89, 2.27)

Dislikes: (PP, Total Rank, StDev)
Michael Pineda (56, 18, -2.73)
Julio Teheran (22, 6, -2.71)
Jacob Turner (55, 23, -2.71)
Aroldis Chapman (23, 8, -2.67)
Jeremy Hellickson (19, 5, -2.54)
Kyle Gibson (61, 35, -2.50)
Mike Montgomery (54, 24, -2.48)
Gary Sanchez (73, 36, -2.27)
Tyler Matzek (64, 33, -2.18)
Miguel Sano (98, 50, -2.17)
Chris Sale (75, 31, -2.11)

Surprising Inclusions: (#Lists, PP)
Reese Havens (1, 42)
Fernando Martinez (1, 53)
Bobby Borchering (1, 60
James Darnell (1, 62)
Drew Cumberland (1, 63)
Alexi Amarista (1, 65)
Dayan Viciedo (1, 77)
Josh Spence (1, 79)
Nick Weglarz (2, 33)
Adeiny Hechevarria (3, 52)
Josh Sale (3, 69)

Surprising Exclusions: (#Lists, Total Rank)
Jarred Cosart (6, 66)
Danny Duffy (6, 71)
Brody Colvin (6, 75)
Dellin Betances (7, 54)
Grant Green (7, 56)
Billy Hamilton (7, 61)
Trey McNutt (7, 68)
Arodys Vizcaino (7, 76)
Brett Lawrie (8, 42)
Chris Archer (8, 43)
Dee Gordon (8, 53)

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