MLB Team Rankings – Week 10

Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation. Data from Baseball-Reference.

Rank Team 3rd Order W% Change
1 Boston Red Sox 0.633 2
2 New York Yankees 0.627 2
3 Toronto Blue Jays 0.594 4
4 Los Angeles Angels 0.589 -2
5 Cleveland Indians 0.587 -4
6 Texas Rangers 0.579 5
7 St. Louis Cardinals 0.576 -1
8 Atlanta Braves 0.571 -3
9 Tampa Bay Rays 0.569 -1
10 Detroit Tigers 0.560 -1
11 Philadelphia Phillies 0.555 3
12 Oakland Athletics 0.546 4
13 Chicago White Sox 0.534 -1
14 Milwaukee Brewers 0.534 4
15 Seattle Mariners 0.524 -2
16 San Francisco Giants 0.521 -1
17 Florida Marlins 0.503 -7
18 Arizona Diamondbacks 0.503 2
19 Colorado Rockies 0.492 3
20 Cincinnati Reds 0.488 -1
21 Kansas City Royals 0.462 -4
22 New York Mets 0.451 2
23 Washington Nationals 0.450 -2
24 Baltimore Orioles 0.442 -1
25 San Diego Padres 0.441 0
26 Chicago Cubs 0.424 0
27 Pittsburgh Pirates 0.415 0
28 Los Angeles Dodgers 0.412 0
29 Houston Astros 0.395 0
30 Minnesota Twins 0.389 0

How Well Do Monthly Winning Percentage and Overall Winning Percentage Correlate?

On twitter (you can follow me there by the way @stealofhome) @yanks08701 asked me “Can you do a report on which month’s winning percentage correlates best with a teams overall winning percentage?” After a little initial confusion, I decided that yes, this is something I could do. Here is a chart that looks at each team’s monthly winning percentage (that month only) plotted against end of year winning percentage:



This is from 1998-2010. August and September have the best correlation, but it is still only at about .45. June has the worst correlation at .31.

Projected MLB Statistical Leaders

We’re about a third of the way through the 2011 MLB season. That means it’s time to multiply everything by three and see what happens! I have included the current MLB record along with the projected number for the leader in each category. I did this by taking the total games played for each player’s team and extrapolating their current stats based on that.


Statistic Record Current Pace Leader
AVG 0.440 0.374 Matt Joyce
AB 716 705 Jose Reyes
PA 778 769 Jose Reyes
H 262 229 Jose Reyes
1B 225 165 Starlin Castro
2B 67 57 Alex Gordon
3B 36 19 Jose Reyes
HR 73 62 Jose Bautista
R 192 131 Jose Bautista
RBI 191 140 Adrian Gonzalez
BB 232 140 Jose Bautista
IBB 120 32 Miguel Cabrera
SO 223 201 Adam Dunn
HBP 51 29 Danny Espinosa
GDP 36 49 Albert Pujols
SB 130 60 Jose Reyes
CS 42 24 Juan Pierre

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MLB Team Rankings – Week 9

Weekly rankings based on a 3rd order winning percentage calculation. Data from Baseball-Reference.

Rank Team WP
1 CLE 0.658
2 LAA 0.602
3 BOS 0.596
4 NYY 0.592
5 ATL 0.591
6 STL 0.583
7 TOR 0.574
8 TBR 0.561
9 DET 0.560
10 FLA 0.551
11 TEX 0.550
12 CHW 0.546
13 SEA 0.544
14 PHI 0.542
15 SFG 0.541
16 OAK 0.530
17 KCR 0.510
18 MIL 0.506
19 CIN 0.503
20 ARI 0.474
21 WSN 0.473
22 COL 0.472
23 BAL 0.454
24 NYM 0.448
25 SDP 0.439
26 CHC 0.435
27 PIT 0.409
28 LAD 0.403
29 HOU 0.385
30 MIN 0.350

Interesting Perfect Or Near-Perfect Games

I had a little extra time on my hands and decided to use my Retrosheet database to find some interesting near perfect or actually perfect games.

Perfect Games:

August 6th, 1967 – Minnesota Twins – 2, Boston Red Sox – 0

Pitcher: Dean Chance

Dean Chance pitched five perfect innings, but the game was called due to rain. Since it was past five innings, this still counts as an official game.

April 21, 1984 – Montreal Expos – 4, St. Louis Cardinals – 0

Pitcher: David Palmer

David Palmer and the Montreal Expos were in the same situation here. The perfect game was called due to rain after five innings.

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Have We Been Seeing Fewer Extra Inning Games?

Yesterday, I found how long extra inning games last. Today, I’m going to look at how often extra inning games are played. Since the data go back to 1950 when less games were played, I simply divided the total number of extra inning games by the total number of games played that year. I also added in a 5-year moving average trend line.

Click the picture to make it readable.

From 1950-1996, extra inning games accounted for an average of 9.69% of all games per year. Since then, the average per year is 8.34%. It’s odd that this all begins in the wild card era, but I don’t see any reason for a correlation between the two.

When Do Extra Inning Games End?

This is something I’ve been interested in, so I decided to look it up. The data come from retrosheet.

Click the picture to make it readable.

When Is a Team “Out of It?”

I look at how far back a team can be until they are considered out of the division race at Beyond the Box Score.

When Do the Standings Matter?

Vin Scully likes to repeat a quote from a well-known former Major League manager, “Give me 50 games and I’ll know what kind of team I have.” I don’t remember who said it, or what the exact quote is, but that’s the gist of it. Just for reference, 50 games into the MLB season usually lands around the end of May. I wanted to test this out and see how quickly we know how good a team actually is, so I did what any regular baseball fan would do: I went to and grabbed the record at the end of each month for every team since 1998 (expansion). Then, I looked at the end of month winning percentage and compared it to the end of season win total, using a linear regression. I also split each month up into bins of team winning percentage. Each bin contains about 65 teams.

Teams are all over the place at the end of April. Sure, the 43-119 2003 Tigers looked terrible, but so did the 102-60 2001 Oakland Athletics (end of April WP of .320). There is a definite pattern, but not enough to say who is good or bad with any certainty.

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Full On Double Wildcard: What Does This Mean?

According to Major League Baseball commissioner Bud Selig, another wild card spot in each league will be added to MLB’s playoff system. However, Michael Weiner – head of the Player’s Association – says talks are still in negotiation, though he doesn’t seem opposed to the idea. I’m sure there is a lot of politicking taking place, something I don’t much care for. So instead, I ask the question: what is the difference in adding a second playoff team? I decided to take a look at each season since the wildcard was introduced in 1995 and find out for myself.

I took the record for each playoff team since 1996 and this is what I found:

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